Sunflower Kernel Market Remains Stable – Buyers Cautious, Supply Plentiful

Sunflower Kernel Market Remains Stable – Buyers Cautious, Supply Plentiful

Despite volatility in the broader oilseed complex, prices for hulled sunflower seeds remained stable. Oversupply and cautious EU demand continue to define market dynamics.

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📊 Market Situation & Price Development

Hulled sunflower kernel prices remained largely unchanged on Tuesday.

• Ukraine (FCA): €1.05/kg
• Bulgaria (FCA): €1.09/kg
• Moldova/Ukraine EU border (with duty): €1.06/kg + customs

The spot market remains saturated, and bids are generally met with prompt offers from Eastern European processors.

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🌍 Key Market Drivers

• Oversupply Persists
  Most major shippers in Ukraine and Moldova continue to offer full-volume contracts. EU processors are well stocked through mid-summer.
• Low Spot Demand in the EU
  With prices stable and margins tight, major buyers (Germany, Netherlands, France) are inactive, waiting for clarity in the broader oilseed market.
• No Weather Threats in Eastern Europe
  Growing conditions in Ukraine and Bulgaria remain good. No early-season concerns for the 2025/26 crop.
• Global Oilseed Pressure Eases Slightly
  Stabilisation in soy oil and palm oil markets could limit further downside for sunflower oil, and indirectly for kernels.

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💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook

Market remains balanced but fragile. Spot activity remains low, and traders continue to work with short lead times.

Strategy:
– Importers: Buy only as needed; no urgency for coverage
– Exporters: Focus on existing positions; no new forward booking pressure
– Monitor the oilseed complex for macro signals

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📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Hulled Sunflower Kernels, FCA €/kg)

Date	Ukraine (FCA)	Bulgaria (FCA)	Outlook
May 22	€1.05	€1.09	➡️ Stable
May 23	€1.05–1.06	€1.09	➡️ Sideways
May 24	€1.05–1.07	€1.08–1.10	⬆️ Mild Upside

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🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Sunflower Regions

Region	Trend	Notes
Ukraine	🌤️ Dry & mild	Ideal for early development
Bulgaria	🌦️ Light showers	Good soil moisture; planting nearly complete
Moldova	🌤️ Stable	No stress expected; exports steady
South Africa	☀️ Post-harvest	Local markets focused on logistics

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