Sunflower Market Under Pressure – Price Differences Between Origins Grow
As of February 28, 2025
1. Headline & Teaser
Sunflower Kernels: FCA Prices Stable, but Logistics Costs for Ukraine Shipments Increase
Prices for hulled sunflower kernels remain stable, but there are significant price differences between origins. Ukrainian products are cheaper (FCA 1.12 EUR/kg), but long border wait times increase logistics costs. The persistently high demand for hulled sunflower kernels could lead to further price increases in the coming weeks.
2. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Developments (SAFEX – ZAR/t)
| Contract | Previous | Closing Price | Change | % Change | Traded Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 9,010.00 | 8,950.00 | -60.00 | -0.67 % | 83 |
| Apr 25 | 9,100.00 | 9,088.00 | -12.00 | -0.13 % | 0 |
| May 25 | 8,850.00 | 8,916.00 | +66.00 | +0.74 % | 213 |
| Jul 25 | 9,087.00 | 9,108.00 | +21.00 | +0.23 % | 0 |
| Sep 25 | 9,327.00 | 9,327.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % | 0 |
| Dec 25 | 9,577.00 | 9,577.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % | 0 |
Analysis:
- May 25 shows the highest price increase (+0.74%) – a sign of continued strong demand.
- March 25 drops by -0.67%, possibly due to short-term profit-taking.
- Long-term contracts remain stable, as uncertainties about the next harvest persist.
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FCA 0.97 €/kg
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Sunflower kernels
hulled, bakery
99,99%
FCA 1.06 €/kg
(from DE)
3. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
Price Differences Between Origins
| Origin | FCA Price (EUR/kg) | DAP Price (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|
 Moldova |
1.13 EUR | – |
 Ukraine |
1.12 EUR | 1.19 – 1.22 EUR |
 Bulgaria |
1.25 EUR | – |
Why Are Ukrainian Prices Lower?
- FCA prices from Ukraine are the lowest, but long border wait times increase logistics costs.
- Bulgaria must import unhulled sunflower seeds, raising the overall cost of hulled kernels.
- Moldova remains stable, but with limited export volumes.
Low Oil Yield Intensifies Supply Shortages
- Lower oil content means higher raw material consumption for oil production.
- Processing is concentrated in the first half of the year, leading to potential shortages later in 2025.
Geopolitical Risk in Ukraine Remains High
- Fulfilling contracts is uncertain, as the political situation remains unstable.
- Risk premiums may rise if the situation worsens.
4. Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)
Price Forecast for Hulled Sunflower Kernels:
- FCA Ukraine: 1.11 – 1.13 EUR/kg
- FCA Moldova: 1.12 – 1.14 EUR/kg
- FCA Bulgaria: 1.24 – 1.27 EUR/kg
Forecast Factors:
- High demand from the bakery industry continues.
- Slow logistics from Ukraine may lead to short-term delivery bottlenecks.
- Better weather conditions could bring medium-term relief.
5. 14-Day Weather Trend
Ukraine:
Temperatures rising to -2°C to +5°C → No immediate frost risk for stockpiles.
Light rain expected in southern Ukraine → Minimal impact on future harvests.
Bulgaria:
- Mild climate between 5–10°C, but dryness could impact planting.
Light winds, no extreme weather events expected.
Conclusion: No immediate weather impact on pricing.
6. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
Global Ending Stocks (Million Tons)
| Season | Ending Stocks | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 million t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 million t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 million t |
Production & Forecasts
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 USA |
382 | 385 | 384 | -0.3 % |
 China |
283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7 % |
 Brazil |
125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5 % |
 Argentina |
51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1 % |
Analysis:
- Stock levels are declining long-term.
- Argentina shows the largest production drop (-6.1%), which may further tighten the market.
7. Conclusion & Recommendations
Summary:
- Ukrainian sunflower kernels remain price-competitive, but logistics remain a challenge.
- Bulgarian kernels remain expensive due to import dependency.
- Supply shortages may worsen later in the year.
Recommendations:
Buyers: Secure positions early before further price increases occur.
Traders: Take advantage of FCA-Ukraine price advantages, but factor in logistics risks.
Producers: Carefully calculate stock levels to capitalize on potential shortages.
Market Outlook:
Further price increases possible, especially for hulled kernels.
Weather remains stable in the short term, but geopolitical risks persist.