📊 Sunflower Market Under Pressure – Price Differences Between Origins Grow
As of February 28, 2025
🔹 1. Headline & Teaser
📉 Sunflower Kernels: FCA Prices Stable, but Logistics Costs for Ukraine Shipments Increase
📍 Prices for hulled sunflower kernels remain stable, but there are significant price differences between origins. Ukrainian products are cheaper (FCA 1.12 EUR/kg), but long border wait times increase logistics costs. The persistently high demand for hulled sunflower kernels could lead to further price increases in the coming weeks.
📊 2. Market Overview: Exchange Prices & Developments (SAFEX – ZAR/t)
| Contract | Previous | Closing Price | Change | % Change | Traded Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 9,010.00 | 8,950.00 | -60.00 | -0.67 % | 83 |
| Apr 25 | 9,100.00 | 9,088.00 | -12.00 | -0.13 % | 0 |
| May 25 | 8,850.00 | 8,916.00 | +66.00 | +0.74 % | 213 |
| Jul 25 | 9,087.00 | 9,108.00 | +21.00 | +0.23 % | 0 |
| Sep 25 | 9,327.00 | 9,327.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % | 0 |
| Dec 25 | 9,577.00 | 9,577.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 % | 0 |
📌 Analysis:
- May 25 shows the highest price increase (+0.74%) – a sign of continued strong demand.
- March 25 drops by -0.67%, possibly due to short-term profit-taking.
- Long-term contracts remain stable, as uncertainties about the next harvest persist.
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Sunflower kernels
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99,98%
FCA 0.97 €/kg
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Sunflower kernels
hulled, bakery
99,99%
FCA 1.06 €/kg
(from DE)
🌍 3. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
🔹 📦 Price Differences Between Origins
| Origin | FCA Price (EUR/kg) | DAP Price (EUR/kg) |
|---|---|---|
| 🇲🇩 Moldova | 1.13 EUR | – |
| 🇺🇦 Ukraine | 1.12 EUR | 1.19 – 1.22 EUR |
| 🇧🇬 Bulgaria | 1.25 EUR | – |
📌 Why Are Ukrainian Prices Lower?
- FCA prices from Ukraine are the lowest, but long border wait times increase logistics costs.
- Bulgaria must import unhulled sunflower seeds, raising the overall cost of hulled kernels.
- Moldova remains stable, but with limited export volumes.
🔹 🌾 Low Oil Yield Intensifies Supply Shortages
- Lower oil content means higher raw material consumption for oil production.
- Processing is concentrated in the first half of the year, leading to potential shortages later in 2025.
🔹 📉 Geopolitical Risk in Ukraine Remains High
- Fulfilling contracts is uncertain, as the political situation remains unstable.
- Risk premiums may rise if the situation worsens.
🔮 4. Market Forecast (Next 3 Days)
📉 Price Forecast for Hulled Sunflower Kernels:
- FCA Ukraine: 1.11 – 1.13 EUR/kg
- FCA Moldova: 1.12 – 1.14 EUR/kg
- FCA Bulgaria: 1.24 – 1.27 EUR/kg
📌 Forecast Factors:
- High demand from the bakery industry continues.
- Slow logistics from Ukraine may lead to short-term delivery bottlenecks.
- Better weather conditions could bring medium-term relief.
⛅ 5. 14-Day Weather Trend
🇺🇦 Ukraine:
- 🌡️ Temperatures rising to -2°C to +5°C → No immediate frost risk for stockpiles.
- 🌧️ Light rain expected in southern Ukraine → Minimal impact on future harvests.
🇧🇬 Bulgaria:
- 🌡️ Mild climate between 5–10°C, but dryness could impact planting.
- 🌬️ Light winds, no extreme weather events expected.
📌 Conclusion: No immediate weather impact on pricing.
📉 6. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
📍 Global Ending Stocks (Million Tons)
| Season | Ending Stocks | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 million t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 million t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 million t |
📍 Production & Forecasts
| Country | 2022/23 | 2023/24 | 2024/25 Forecast | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 384 | -0.3 % |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7 % |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5 % |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1 % |
📌 Analysis:
- Stock levels are declining long-term.
- Argentina shows the largest production drop (-6.1%), which may further tighten the market.
🔍 7. Conclusion & Recommendations
📌 Summary:
- Ukrainian sunflower kernels remain price-competitive, but logistics remain a challenge.
- Bulgarian kernels remain expensive due to import dependency.
- Supply shortages may worsen later in the year.
📌 Recommendations:
✔ Buyers: Secure positions early before further price increases occur.
✔ Traders: Take advantage of FCA-Ukraine price advantages, but factor in logistics risks.
✔ Producers: Carefully calculate stock levels to capitalize on potential shortages.
📌 Market Outlook:
📈 Further price increases possible, especially for hulled kernels.
⏳ Weather remains stable in the short term, but geopolitical risks persist.