Sunflower Seed Market: China Faces Weak Demand & Ample Supply Pressure

The Chinese sunflower seed market is currently grappling with a period of lackluster activity and persistent price weakness. This subdued trend has its roots primarily in the post-holiday environment, shaped by the conclusion of terminal stocking and notable logistical constraints encountered before and during the Spring Festival. While there is still some minor support from rigid procurement and export orders, these factors are not strong enough to alter the overall market direction.

The majority of sunflower seed supply remains concentrated among growers and color-sorting plants, amplifying the leverage buyers have during negotiations. Importantly, downstream sector inventory pressure remains substantial, signaling a continued imbalance between supply and demand. The absence of any significant improvement in end-user consumption further cements expectations that the sunflower seed market will maintain its current weak-to-stable price pattern through the holiday cycle. The Chinese domestic outlook sheds light on the broader global sunflower market, underlining the critical role China plays as both a major producer and consumer in setting global benchmarks.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change (%)	Date
Sunflower seeds	CN	Black w/ stripe	98%	No	Beijing	FOB	1.50	1.48	+1.4%	2026-02-21
Sunflower kernels	CN	Hulled, confection	99.95%	No	Beijing	FOB	1.06	1.05	+1.0%	2026-02-21
Sunflower kernels	CN	Hulled, bakery	99.95%	No	Beijing	FOB	1.07	1.07	0.0%	2026-02-21

Market sentiment: Bearish/steady in China, slight positive movement in price but fundamentals remain weak.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Supply: Most stocks are still in the hands of growers and processors, providing surplus market supply and increasing room for price negotiation.
• Demand: Demand remains sluggish; little sign of a post-holiday rebound in processing or downstream utilization.
• End-user inventory: Notably high, further reducing urgency for new buying.
• Exports: Export orders offer limited support but are not enough to shift market momentum.

📊 Fundamentals

Factor	Current Status (China)
Trading Activity	Minimal, driven by essential procurement and exports only
Inventory	Still high in downstream sectors, low turnover overall
Bargaining Power	Favours buyers due to abundant stocks at origin
Consumption Trend	Terminal demand remains noticeably weak

⛅ Weather Outlook

• No recent weather events have significantly altered the production or transportation situation for sunflower seeds in China following the Spring Festival.
• Major growing areas expect regular late-winter conditions, with no risk of crop losses in storage or transit reported by the trade.
• Seasonal forecasts suggest typical planting progression, so no immediate weather-driven price risk is apparent.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

• China: Domestic supply ample, inventories concentrated at farm/processor level. Weak local use undermines spot and forward prices.
• Ukraine & Russia: Remain major global suppliers; Ukrainian prices by comparison are far lower (e.g., Odesa: 0.56-0.63 EUR/kg for seed) and show no week-on-week gains.
• Europe (Bulgaria, Germany): Prices stable to weak, mirroring the global market trend (0.43-0.95 EUR/kg for kernels and seeds).

📝 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect a continued sideways or weak market in China through the near term, barring an unexpected surge in downstream offtake.
• Buyers have room to negotiate due to persistent oversupply; large holdings in the hands of processors further dampen the possibility of price recovery.
• Watch export demand closely—any large fresh orders may offer limited upside, though fundamentals remain weak.
• Risk of further price erosion is limited but real unless end-user demand improves.
• For traders with exposure to Chinese sunflower seeds: maintain only minimal short-term cover and avoid speculative buying.
• International buyers looking for supply: Chinese-origin products remain more expensive than Black Sea origins—this price premium may not be sustainable if global weakness persists.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (CNY & EUR)

Region/Exchange	Product	Current Price	3-Day Forecast
China (Beijing FOB)	Sunflower seed (black w/ stripe)	1.50 EUR/kg	Stable to slightly lower (1.48–1.50 EUR/kg)
Ukraine (Odesa FOB)	Sunflower seed (black)	0.56 EUR/kg	Steady (0.56 EUR/kg)
Bulgaria (Sofia FCA)	Sunflower seed (black)	0.43 EUR/kg	Unchanged (0.43 EUR/kg)

Overall, the Chinese sunflower seed market is expected to maintain a steady-to-weak posture over the immediate future, with no major drivers on the horizon to shift supply-demand fundamentals. The global context reflects similar dynamics, with lower prices in Black Sea and European regions potentially putting pressure on China’s price premium. Traders are advised to act cautiously and avoid building large positions until conditions improve.