Sunflower Seed Prices Weaken Further – Harvest Pressure in South Africa Builds
Sunflower Seed Prices Weaken Further – Harvest Pressure in South Africa Builds
Sunflower seed futures in South Africa extended losses on Friday. Strong harvest deliveries and a broader weakness in vegetable oil markets continue to weigh on prices.
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📊 Market Situation & Price Development (SAFEX – ZAR/t)
All key sunflower seed contracts on the South African Futures Exchange (SAFEX) traded lower on Friday. The May 2025 contract lost 14 ZAR to 8,779 ZAR/t, equivalent to approximately 439 EUR/t (assuming 1 EUR = 20.00 ZAR). The Jul 2025 contract dropped by 22 ZAR to 8,965 ZAR/t (≈448 EUR/t).
| Contract | Price (ZAR/t) | EUR/t (approx) | Daily Change | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 25 | 8,779 | 439 | –14 ZAR | ⬇️ |
| Jul 25 | 8,965 | 448 | –22 ZAR | ⬇️ |
| Sep 25 | 9,156 | 458 | –43 ZAR | ⬇️ |
| Dec 25 | 9,318 | 466 | –22 ZAR | ⬇️ |
🌍 Key Market Drivers
- Harvest Pressure Increasing
Peak deliveries from the 2025 crop are weighing on spot prices. Processors are well supplied, and bids have softened. - Vegetable Oil Complex Under Pressure
Declines in soyoil, rapeseed, and palm oil have lowered crushing margins globally, pressuring sunflower oil demand. - Export Market Limited
With Ukrainian sunflower oil remaining cheaper, South African export prospects remain weak in Q2. - Currency Stable
The South African rand remained steady, offering no additional support to domestic prices.
💼 Trading Strategy & Market Outlook
Sunflower seed prices are moving toward seasonal lows. Unless oil markets stabilise, pressure may continue.
Strategy:
– Hold off on new longs until harvest volume peaks
– Exporters face weak margins – focus on internal feed markets
– Look for potential price support near 8,700–8,800 ZAR/t
📈 3-Day Price Forecast (Jul 25 Contract – ZAR/t)
| Date | Expected Range (ZAR/t) | Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| May 20 | 8,920–9,000 | ⬇️ Soft |
| May 21 | 8,900–8,980 | ➡️ Sideways |
| May 22 | 8,900–9,020 | ⬆️ Limited Bounce |
🌦️ 14-Day Weather Outlook – Sunflower Regions (South Africa)
| Region | Trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Free State | ☀️ Warm & dry | Harvest progressing rapidly |
| North West | 🌤️ Mild & stable | Yields consistent, minor storage constraints |
| Limpopo | ☀️ Hot | No major issues – minimal production zone |
| Eastern Cape | ☀️ Stable | Market unaffected – no significant area planted |
