📉 Tariff Shock Sends Soybeans Plummeting – Rapeseed and Canola Retreat Amid Trade Tensions
📍 A sharp escalation in U.S.–China trade tensions triggered heavy selling across oilseed markets on Friday. CBOT soybeans fell dramatically, dragged down by fears of retaliatory Chinese tariffs. Euronext rapeseed futures ended lower, with the front month holding up best, while ICE canola suffered double-digit losses. Soy oil, while retreating, remained positive for the week.
📊 1. Market Overview – Futures & Developments
🌍 CBOT – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (ct/bu) | 💶 EUR/t (approx.) | 📉 Change | 📊 Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 977.00 | €328 | -33.50 | -46.00 ct (-4.5%) |
| Soybean Oil | – | – | Slight loss | +1.5% (week) |
| Soybean Meal | – | – | Modest decline | – |
📉 Euronext – Rapeseed Futures (05.04.2025)
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 517.00 | -0.25 | -8.50 EUR (-1.6%) |
| Aug 2025 | 470.50 | -5.75 | – |
| Nov 2025 | 472.75 | -5.50 | – |
📉 ICE Winnipeg – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Close (CAD/t) | 💶 EUR/t (approx.) | 📉 Change | 📊 Weekly |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 622.00 | €397 | -13.90 | +8.40 CAD (+1.4%) |
| Jul 2025 | 626.70 | €400 | -12.80 | – |
| Nov 2025 | 615.20 | €393 | -10.60 | – |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Key Developments
🇨🇳 China Responds to U.S. Tariffs with 34% Retaliation
- China imposed a 34% tariff on U.S. soybean imports, causing a panic sell-off at the CBOT.
- ~600,000 t of U.S. soybeans are currently sold to China but not yet shipped.
- Another 2 million t are marked as “unknown destinations,” potentially also China-bound.
- Cancellations could force U.S. exporters to find alternative buyers.
🇺🇸 U.S. Export Commitments Remain Strong But Below Trend
- Total 2024/25 soybean commitments as of March 27: 46.17 MMT, up 14% y/y.
- But they represent only 93% of USDA’s export forecast, below the 5-year average of 94%.
🇨🇦 Canola Weighed Down Despite Weekly Gains
- May ICE canola dropped 13.90 CAD on Friday, but still ended the week higher.
- Canada benefited from being exempt from U.S. tariffs, aiding its trade outlook.
- However, volatile soy markets and a strong Canadian dollar added pressure.
🌴 Palm Oil Falls on Energy Weakness
- Malaysian palm oil ended Friday down 2% for the week, hurt by falling crude oil prices.
- The benchmark June contract closed at 4,329 MYR/t (€976.32/t).
- Further losses were recorded Monday as crude oil hit its lowest level since April 2021.
🔮 3-Day Forecast
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Cautious tone expected after a strong rally.
- Resistance: €530/t
- Support: €505/t
- Outlook: €510–€525/t
📉 Soybeans (CBOT)
- Trend: Bearish short-term due to trade risk.
- Resistance: 1,000 ct/bu
- Support: 955 ct/bu
- Outlook: 960–980 ct/bu
📉 4. USDA Ending Stocks – Soybeans (Long-Term)
| Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 |
🔍 5. Summary & Outlook
📉 Key Takeaways:
- Markets were shaken by China’s retaliation to U.S. tariffs, dragging soybeans sharply lower.
- Rapeseed proved more resilient, but sentiment is fragile, particularly for new crop contracts.
- Canola’s trade outlook improved, but soy-driven volatility caps upside.
🔮 Market attention will remain fixed on Washington and Beijing. If trade talks fail to cool tensions, the entire oilseed complex could face further downside – particularly in soybeans.
