Tight High-Quality Supply Supports Firm Dried Fig Prices Ahead of New Season

High-quality dried fig supply from the old crop is now very tight, keeping export prices firm even as the last cold-store stocks in Aydın are cleared. With pollination underway and farmers focused on quality after this season’s export losses, the new crop is already shaping up as a quality-sensitive market. The transition phase in Türkiye’s fig sector is clearly visible: remaining cold-storage volumes are being liquidated, but exporters still struggle to assemble container-size lots of premium grades. At the same time, orchard work is intensifying. Pollination started in June and is critical for fruit size, uniformity and ultimately dried fig quality. Farmers in Aydın are putting extra emphasis on using strong pollination material this year to avoid a repeat of quality-related export setbacks. Against this backdrop, euro-denominated FOB Malatya prices are broadly stable yet historically elevated, and buyers are cautious about coverage until there is more visibility on the 2026/27 crop.

Prices & Market Tone

Dried fig export prices remain high versus last year, and the dollar export value per tonne is up even though weekly export volumes are broadly unchanged. This reflects both limited availability of high-quality product and firm growers’ ideas after a difficult season.

Current indicative FOB Malatya prices in EUR show a flat pattern over recent weeks, with no changes between 19 May and 10 June. The premium of larger natural figs over Lerida-style product is clearly visible, underlining the scarcity of top-quality, large-calibre fruit.

Supply & Demand Situation

The final lots of old-crop figs from cold storage facilities in Aydın have now entered the market. However, assembling container volumes of export-quality lots is described as “quite difficult,” highlighting a pronounced shortage of top grades rather than an overall volume deficit.

Weekly export volumes remain broadly in line with last year, but the value per tonne is higher due to elevated prices. This suggests demand for Turkish figs is resilient at current levels, especially from established markets, while some price-sensitive destinations may be rationed out or trading down in quality.

Fundamentals & Pollination Focus

Farmers are already preparing intensively for the new season. Pollination started in June and is a key determinant of fruit set, size distribution, and the proportion of exportable dried figs. After this year’s export losses linked to quality, growers are placing particular emphasis on using high-quality pollination material and correct timing.

This stronger quality focus should support a healthier share of exportable-grade fruit if weather cooperates, but it also raises growers’ cost base and may underpin firm price ideas in the new season negotiations. The industry will closely watch early fruit development in July–August to gauge whether this quality push translates into improved grading outcomes.

Weather Outlook for Aydın

The short-term weather outlook for Aydın points to generally hot, mostly sunny conditions with daytime highs around 31–34°C and limited rain over the next week. Such weather is broadly supportive of pollination activities, provided orchards do not experience prolonged heat spikes or dry stress.

A brief increase in cloudiness and isolated thunderstorms is possible around the weekend, but no severe or prolonged adverse conditions are currently indicated. For now, weather is a neutral-to-slightly-supportive factor for the upcoming crop, with downside risks emerging only if high temperatures intensify later in June.

Trading Outlook & Strategy

• Importers / Buyers: Consider covering near-term needs soon, particularly in larger natural grades, as high-quality old-crop stocks are nearly exhausted and quality-driven premiums are likely to persist.
• Packers / Exporters: Maintain disciplined offer levels for premium product; avoid forward-selling large volumes of new crop until fruit set and early sizing are clearer after pollination.
• Growers: Prioritise meticulous pollination and orchard management in June to maximise exportable-grade output and recoup losses from the previous season’s quality issues.

3-Day Price & Directional View (EUR)

• Turkey, FOB Malatya – Natural figs (No: 1–4): 8.8–9.6 EUR/kg, bias: sideways to slightly firm on tight premium supply.
• Turkey, FOB Malatya – Lerida figs (No: 3–5): 6.5–8.0 EUR/kg, bias: stable, with limited downside as old-crop stocks clear.
• Overall dried fig complex: Stable high price environment until clearer signals on 2026/27 crop size and quality emerge later in the summer.