Tight Stocks, Weather Risks: Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm at High Levels

Prices for Turkish dried apricots remain elevated and stable as depleted stocks meet rising concerns over the new crop after blossom loss and last year’s frost‑related tree damage. The market is waiting for clearer signals from the 2026 harvest before repricing.

With spring temperatures rising, apricot trees that had already started blooming lost part of their flowers due to recent rains, adding to structural stress from last season’s frost damage and disease pressure. This is amplifying worries about yield potential for the coming crop. On the demand side, exports reached about 2,400 t in March and 7,000 t in Q1, below expectations but drawn from already thin inventories, keeping prices high even if overall farmer and exporter satisfaction is low. Until crop size becomes visible, liquidity is cautious and buyers are covering needs selectively.

📈 Prices

Stocks in origin are described as significantly depleted and this is clearly reflected in firm FOB levels. Despite subdued satisfaction with export volumes, high prices are statistically supporting farm income for those with product to sell.

Product	Spec / Origin	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–3 Week Trend
Dried apricots no. 1, unsulphured	Conventional, Malatya, FOB TR	≈ 8.55	Sideways at high level
Dried apricots no. 2, unsulphured	Organic, Malatya, FOB TR	≈ 10.35	Sideways at high level
Dried apricots no. 4, unsulphured	Conventional, Malatya, FOB TR	≈ 8.00	Stable
Dried apricots no. 5, unsulphured	Conventional, Malatya, FOB TR	≈ 7.80	Stable
Dried apricots no. 1, sulphured (2000 ppm)	Conventional, Malatya, FOB TR	≈ 8.70	Stable

Sulphured qualities (no. 1–8) are broadly in the 7.30–8.70 EUR/kg FOB range, with the lower sizes at the lower end. Unsulphured and especially organic grades continue to command notable premiums of roughly 1.50–2.00 EUR/kg over standard sulphured material at origin.

🌍 Supply & Demand

On the supply side, the market is facing a dual shock. First, last year’s frost has left a legacy of disease in trees, which is now becoming visible and threatens productivity. Second, the recent combination of warm weather and subsequent rains caused trees that had already started blooming to shed a significant share of blossoms, directly reducing yield potential for the upcoming crop.

This damage comes on top of already depleted warehouse stocks, meaning the pipeline is thin ahead of the new season. While March exports of over 2,400 t and Q1 shipments of 7,000 t are considered lower than hoped, they were still sufficient to pull inventories down further. Farmers and exporters, however, are not satisfied with these figures because volume losses and agronomic risks offset the nominal benefit of high prices.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is tight: low carry‑in stocks, weather‑related yield risk and structural tree health issues are all supportive for prices. The current export pace suggests demand is resilient but increasingly price‑sensitive, with some buyers delaying larger tenders until there is better visibility on the 2026 crop size and quality.

In Malatya, the core growing region, the short‑term weather outlook for the next five days points to mild spring temperatures around 17–20°C with a mix of sun, clouds and scattered showers or local thundershowers. This pattern is not extreme but, following earlier rain‑induced blossom loss, any further unsettled episodes during sensitive flowering and fruit‑set stages remain a downside risk to yield rather than a relief factor.

📆 Market Outlook & Trading Ideas

Until a clearer picture of the harvest emerges, prices are likely to remain supported at current elevated levels, with limited downside as long as stocks stay tight. The key uncertainty for the coming weeks is how much of the blossom loss will translate into actual volume reductions at harvest.

• Importers / industrial users: Consider covering at least 2–3 months of nearby physical needs at current levels, especially for specific sizes and unsulphured or organic grades where alternatives are limited.
• Retail packers: Maintain some price flexibility in consumer contracts or use smaller pack sizes to manage high raw material costs while avoiding demand destruction.
• Farmers / exporters: Avoid aggressive forward sales until fruit‑set and early crop estimates are clearer; prioritize quality management in orchards affected by last year’s frost and disease.

📉 3‑Day Price Indication

• Malatya FOB (TR) – unsulphured grades: Stable to slightly firm; liquidity thin, offers mostly unchanged in the 7.8–10.4 EUR/kg range depending on size and organic status.
• Malatya/Ankara FOB (TR) – sulphured grades: Stable; most trades expected around 7.3–8.7 EUR/kg with limited discounting given depleted stocks.
• EU warehouses (NL, PL, FCA): Diced/cubes and bulk material steady; nearby availability adequate but replacement costs anchored by firm origin prices.