Togo’s Tight Raw Cashew Supply Lifts Prices Despite New Export Tax

Firm late-season demand for Togolese raw cashews has pushed prices well above official levels, offsetting pressure from a lower producer price and a new export tax. Tight supplies and strong competition for remaining quality nuts have so far protected farmer returns. Togo’s 2026 cashew campaign illustrates how physical scarcity can dominate policy signals. The government cut the official farmgate price by about 18% and introduced an export levy on raw cashew nuts to incentivise local processing. Producer organisations feared a hit to farmer incomes, yet by late June tightening availability and sustained buying from processors, traders and exporters drove prices decisively higher at both farm and port levels.

Prices

The season opened with an official producer price around USD 0.61/kg, but actual farmgate trades quickly detached from this reference as competition intensified. Early in the campaign, farmers achieved roughly USD 0.86–1.00/kg for good-quality raw nuts, rising to about USD 0.88–1.02/kg by late June as stocks dwindled in producing areas.

Lomé, as the main commercial hub, showed an even firmer tone. Limited inventory and sustained exporter demand supported port prices near USD 1.21–1.23/kg, implying a clear premium over producing regions. The trend highlights a tightening raw nut balance toward the close of the 2026 marketing season, with buyers prioritising volume coverage and quality.

*USD prices converted approximately to EUR for comparison.

On the kernel side, indicative wholesale offers in Europe and Asia remain broadly steady in mid‑August. In the Netherlands, conventional SWP cashew kernels are around EUR 3.10/kg FCA Dordrecht, while organic SWP trades near EUR 4.65/kg. Conventional WW320 kernels in Dordrecht are about EUR 5.05/kg, and organic WW320 around EUR 6.15/kg. Indian FOB New Delhi prices for non-organic W320 stand close to EUR 7.10/kg equivalent, with Vietnamese WW320 at roughly EUR 6.97/kg FOB Hanoi, underscoring a relatively firm but not spiking kernel complex.

Supply & Demand

Raw cashew availability in Togo tightened markedly into the second quarter as the official campaign progressed. With the harvest largely committed and quality stocks diminishing, buyers intensified competition, particularly for well-dried nuts with acceptable outturn. This scarcity, rather than policy benchmarks, ultimately set the market level.

Domestic processors, traders and exporters all remained active, creating a three-way pull on limited volumes. The premium achieved in Lomé suggests exporters were still keen to secure Togolese raw nuts despite the new export tax, likely to honour forward sales and blend origins. For farmers able to hold stock and maintain quality, the late-season rally more than compensated for the initially lower official price.

Policy & Fundamentals

The Togolese government’s 2026 cashew policy mix combines a reduced official producer price with a new export levy on raw nuts. The objective is to channel more volume into domestic processing and raise local value addition while generating sector revenue. At the same time, cashew kernel exports remain untaxed, preserving incentives for processing investment.

In practice, the 2026 campaign shows that when global demand is firm and regional supply is constrained, an administratively lower price floor has limited traction. Market-based competition for raw material quickly lifted realised farmgate prices above the official level. The export tax may gradually support processing margins, but its long-term impact will depend on whether domestic plants can offer prices that remain attractive to farmers relative to export buyers.

From a fundamentals perspective, the key uncertainties are future investment in processing capacity, the effectiveness of enforcement along trade corridors, and potential farmer responses in terms of orchard maintenance and replanting. If the export levy meaningfully compresses net farm returns in weaker demand years, it could dampen medium-term supply growth.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Views

With the 2026 marketing season in its closing phase, Togolese raw cashew supply is structurally tight, and further substantial upside in farmgate prices appears limited by already elevated late-season levels. However, nearby downside also seems modest as exporters and processors still need to cover residual commitments.

• Processors in Togo: Secure remaining quality raw nuts selectively rather than chasing volume at any price. Focus on origin premiums and kernel yields to protect margins under the new tax regime.
• Exporters/buyers: Consider blending Togolese raw nuts with other West African origins to average input costs, while remaining attentive to policy changes and potential tightening of compliance controls.
• Farmers and cooperatives: Where storage conditions allow, holding back small volumes of top-quality nuts into the late season continues to offer pricing advantages, but quality and moisture risks must be carefully managed.
• Kernel buyers in Europe: With kernel offers broadly stable in EUR terms, use the current window to forward-cover part of Q4 2026 needs, especially for premium grades such as W320 and organic lines.

Over the next three days, raw cashew prices in Togo are expected to remain firm and largely stable, with Lomé maintaining a premium to producing areas. Kernel prices on key exchanges and export hubs (Netherlands, India, Vietnam) are likewise seen trading sideways in EUR terms, reflecting a balanced but tight global cashew complex.