The Turkish apricot sector, anchored in the Malatya region, is showing robust signs of recovery following last year’s devastating spring frost, which sharply curtailed both yields and exports. As the world’s dominant producer—supplying around 85% of global dried apricots—Malatya’s fortunes drive both price and supply dynamics internationally. Early 2026 assessments indicate that orchards are emerging from the budding stage in considerably better shape than initially feared. Backed by substantial government intervention, effective recovery measures, and increased farmer training, growers and authorities now expect a significant rebound in yields, albeit not yet a full return to pre-frost levels.
Despite this improving outlook, the effects of the 2025 freeze still weigh heavily on export volumes and market availability: Turkish dried apricot shipments between August 1, 2025, and February 28, 2026, fell by nearly two-thirds compared to the previous year. Shipments to the EU, a major customer, suffered an even steeper 60% year-on-year drop. Market participants are watching upcoming spring weather closely: the crucial shift from budding to flowering will determine just how fully Malatya’s apricot orchards rebound—and by extension, the prevailing market prices for the months ahead.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Apricots dried
no: 5, unsulphured
FOB 8.00 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured, organic
FOB 9.40 €/kg
(from TR)
Apricots dried
no: 4, unsulphured
FOB 8.10 €/kg
(from TR)
📈 Prices
| Product Type | Origin | Location | Organic | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment | Offer Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dried Apricot, No. 5, Unsulphured | TR | Malatya | No | FOB | 8.00 | 8.00 | 2026-03-10 | Stable/High | View |
| Dried Apricot, No. 4, Unsulphured, Organic | TR | Ankara | Yes | FOB | 9.40 | 9.40 | 2026-03-10 | Stable/High (Organic) | View |
| Dried Apricot, No. 4, Unsulphured | TR | Malatya | No | FOB | 8.10 | 8.10 | 2026-03-10 | Stable/High | View |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production: Malatya, responsible for around 85% of world dried apricot output, suffered major frost damage in April 2025. Recent field reports now expect recovery to 60–80% of normal yields in 2026, thanks to government and farmer-led interventions.
- Exports: Turkey’s dried apricot exports (Aug 2025–Feb 2026): 20,007 tons—a steep fall from 55,479 tons in the prior year. EU shipments are down 60% y/y to 6,420 tons, reflecting limited supply and price elevation.
- Prices: Remain high and stable at FOB Malatya, supported by constrained supply. Organic and unsulphured varieties see premiums up to 30% over standard qualities.
📊 Fundamentals
- Government Support: About 7.7 billion TL (US$240m) in farmer relief, including direct payments and insurance top-ups, helped stabilize the sector and finance recovery moves.
- Training & Management: Targeted farmer training in crop protection and nutrition has played a key role in improving orchard health for the 2026 season.
- Market Structure: Lower availability means buyers face continued tightness in supply. Exporters prioritize premium markets; smaller origins and substitute products may see increasing demand.
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- 2025 Frost: Major spring freeze in Malatya caused unprecedented yield losses.
- Current Outlook: Early 2026 weather is critical as trees move from budding to flowering. Favorable conditions could further bolster crop performance, while late frost remains a risk.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
- Turkey (Malatya): Leading global supplier, still well below normal production but outlook much improved for 2026. Stocks remain tight.
- Other Exporters: Uzbekistan, Iran, and some EU countries remain small-scale compared to Turkey, unable to offset Malatya-driven shortfalls.
- Major Importers: EU, Russia, and Middle East continue to face constrained import volumes and persistent price pressure.
📌 Market Drivers & Insights
- Government Relief: Immediate cash support and insurance payments spurred rapid orchard recovery and farmer readiness for planting and protection.
- Weather Sensitivity: The next three weeks are critical: any further frost incidence could jeopardize the current recovery scenario.
- Export Pricing: High FOB prices reflect both limited volumes and demand-side resilience, with premium for organic and unsulphured grades.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Malatya FOB, EUR/kg)
| Date | No. 5 Unsulphured | No. 4 Organic | No. 4 Unsulphured |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-11 | 8.00 | 9.40 | 8.10 |
| 2026-03-12 | 8.00 | 9.40 | 8.10 |
| 2026-03-13 | 8.00 | 9.40 | 8.10 |
🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect apricot prices to remain firm, especially for unsulphured and organic qualities, due to constrained stocks and cautious forward-selling by exporters.
- If weather remains favorable, gradual improvement in yield/output could emerge later in the season, but full normalization is unlikely before 2027.
- Short-term, buyers should maintain flexible strategies, closely monitor Malatya weather, and consider securing contracts for premium grades early.
- Monitor government and local authority updates for any signs of late frost or policy interventions.
