Turkish Dried Apricots: Firm Prices, Weather-Watch in Malatya

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding firm with a slight upward bias on sulphured grades, as exporters and EU buyers closely track cool, unsettled weather in Malatya. Tight old-crop stocks after last year’s frost continue to underpin FOB offers, limiting downside despite steady demand. The market remains price-supportive rather than aggressively bullish. FOB Malatya/Ankara offers for standard unsulphured sizes are broadly flat versus late March, while sulphured grades have inched higher. FCA stocks in Europe trade in a narrow range, reflecting comfortable nearby coverage but caution on new-crop risks. With Malatya’s orchards past bloom and facing several days of cool, wet conditions but no hard frost in the short-term outlook, prices are expected to stay firm to slightly higher into early next week.

Prices & Recent Moves

Dried apricot pricing in Türkiye and the EU is broadly stable compared with late March, with a firm tone on origin offers:

• FOB Malatya/Ankara, unsulphured, conventional mid-sizes: roughly flat versus late March levels, indicating a sideways market at elevated prices after the 2025 frost-related surge.
• FOB Malatya, sulphured grades: modest increases of about EUR 0.5–0.8/kg over the past four weeks, consistent with reports of firm producer offers and very tight high-quality stock.
• FCA EU (NL, PL) Turkish dried apricot cubes and whole grade no. 8: prices stable in a narrow range, reflecting balanced spot demand and limited seller pressure.

Supply, Stocks & Weather

Fundamentally, the market is still digesting last year’s extreme frost damage in Malatya, which cut the 2025 crop and exportable supply sharply. Export data for August 2025–February 2026 show shipments less than half of the prior year, confirming structurally tight availability.

Spring 2026 has brought early and abundant bloom in Malatya orchards, increasing sensitivity to any April cold snaps. Recent commentary highlights a weather risk premium in prices, with buyers monitoring for frost that could affect the 2026/27 crop. However, the short-term forecast (18–20 April) shows cool, mostly cloudy and occasionally rainy conditions with highs around 14–17°C and lows generally above 4°C – uncomfortable for fieldwork but not damaging for bloom or fruit set.

On the demand side, Türkiye’s broader dried fruit export sector remains strong, with dried apricots still a key earner despite lower volumes in 2025. Trade sources describe current apricot prices as “high and firm,” with exporters cautious to release old-crop stocks before the new harvest outlook is clearer.

Market Fundamentals & Risks

• Stocks: Low carry-in after the 2025 frost continues to support prices; any additional weather damage this spring would quickly translate into higher FOB offers.
• Weather risk: Early bloom and variable temperatures keep a risk premium in the market, but the immediate 3-day outlook is non-frosty, pointing to stability rather than new spikes this week.
• Export pace: Export volumes are still well below normal, but unit values remain elevated, suggesting demand rationing rather than a true demand slump.
• Competing origins/products: Other dried fruits (e.g., Chinese dried apples) show stable prices, indirectly supporting Turkish apricots by keeping buyers anchored to a firm dried-fruit complex.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Importers / packers: Consider covering Q2–early Q3 needs at current levels; downside looks limited while any frost scare could quickly lift FOB offers.
• Retail/brand buyers: Lock in volumes for key sulphured sizes where origin prices have already ticked up; prioritize suppliers with firm allocations out of Malatya.
• Producers / exporters: With tight stocks and no immediate frost on the 3-day horizon, maintaining firm offers appears justified; only sharp demand weakness would warrant discounts.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (EUR)

• FOB Malatya/Ankara (TR): Stable to slightly firmer (0 to +1%) over the next 3 days as cool, wet but non-damaging weather sustains the risk premium.
• FCA NL / PL (EU stocks): Largely stable (0 to +0.5%) with limited spot liquidity and no strong pressure either side.