Turkish Dried Apricots: FOB Flat, EU FCA Edging Higher as Exports Pick Up

FOB prices for Turkish dried apricots in Malatya and Ankara are flat in EUR terms, while FCA offers in the EU are slightly firmer, supported by brisk export demand and seasonally tight nearby supply. With warm, dry weather in Malatya and no immediate crop threats, the short‑term price bias remains mildly upward rather than corrective. Export interest from Europe and newer Asian and Middle Eastern destinations is strong, helping Turkey, and particularly Malatya, to defend current price levels despite little movement in official domestic quotations. Recent reports highlight accelerating shipments and a still‑firm forward curve for the new marketing year, reflecting expectations for a broadly normal 2026 crop but tight high‑quality grades. Weather over the next few days looks benign, suggesting no immediate yield or quality risk for sun‑drying in key production areas.

Prices

Domestic FOB offers in Türkiye for Malatya and Ankara origin dried apricots are broadly unchanged around EUR 7.80–8.65/kg for conventional sulphured and unsulphured sizes No. 1–5, and around EUR 9.30–10.35/kg for organic lines, with no week‑on‑week movement in quoted levels up to 15 July 2026. At the same time, EU FCA prices for Turkish origin stock in the Netherlands have firmed slightly over recent weeks, with size runs generally in the low‑ to mid‑EUR 6s/kg and cubes around the mid‑EUR 3s/kg, reflecting stronger nearby demand and higher logistics and financing costs.

Supply & Demand

Malatya remains the dominant origin, accounting for the bulk of Türkiye’s dried apricot output and exports. Local harvest for the 2026 crop is underway, with reports of a roughly 45‑day picking period now in progress and around 50,000 families depending on apricots as a primary income source. While last season saw frost‑related losses, stakeholders now expect a more normal production profile, pending final official crop estimates due later in July.

On the demand side, recent market commentary highlights accelerating exports from Malatya, with first‑half 2026 dried apricot export values slightly ahead of last year and Europe still the key destination, complemented by growing sales into Asian and Middle Eastern markets. Global consumption of dried apricots continues to trend higher, supported by retail snacking, bakery and cereal applications and a premium segment for organic fruit, helping to absorb Turkish supply at current price levels.

Weather & Crop Conditions (TR)

Short‑term weather in Malatya is seasonally hot and dry, with daytime highs around 33–34°C and clear to mostly sunny skies forecast through 18 July 2026. These conditions are favourable for ongoing harvest and sun‑drying, reducing immediate concerns over fruit quality or drying delays. In Ankara and Central Anatolia, where some drying and trading activity also occurs, the next three days are likewise warm and mostly sunny, with highs near 30–32°C.

Given the absence of frost risk at this stage and no forecast of heavy rain or hail in the coming days, near‑term supply shocks from weather look unlikely. Market focus is therefore shifting from weather risk to the pace of export sales and currency dynamics as the main price drivers into late July.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Exports accelerating: Trade sources report faster export bookings for 2026 crop dried apricots, particularly to EU buyers replenishing low pipeline stocks and to newer Asian outlets, underpinning a firm forward curve.
• FOB–FCA spread widening: While domestic FOB offers remain flat in EUR, EU FCA prices are edging higher on stronger demand and tighter nearby availability in European warehouses, widening the margin for traders holding physical stock.
• Macro backdrop: Türkiye’s export sector continues to benefit from a competitive lira and policy focus on supporting agri‑food exports, which helps maintain export volumes but may also encourage sellers to defend price floors in EUR.
• Global demand trend: Medium‑term growth in dried apricot consumption, especially for whole fruit and organic lines, supports the view that any short‑term dips in demand are likely to be absorbed without a deep price correction.

Outlook & Trading Pointers

• Short‑term price bias: With weather benign and exports active, the 3–7 day bias for Turkish FOB dried apricots is slightly upward or at least firmly sideways in EUR, particularly for standard sulphured sizes No. 2–4 and higher‑quality unsulphured grades.
• Buyers’ strategy: EU and UK importers with open Q3 positions may consider covering a portion of needs at current FCA levels, as local European premiums could widen further if export bookings from Türkiye stay strong and logistics costs remain elevated.
• Sellers’ strategy: Turkish packers with unpriced stock can justify a patient approach, using flat FOB benchmarks as a floor while selectively pushing premiums for organic and large sizes, especially where quality is above average.
• Risk factors to watch: Confirmation of the official 2026 crop estimate later in July and any shift in export pace or FX policy; a materially larger‑than‑expected crop could cap upside beyond the current firm range, while any late‑season weather or quality issues could quickly tighten nearby supply.

3‑Day Directional Price View (EUR)

• FOB Malatya (TR): Conventional sulphured/unsulphured No. 2–5 expected to trade broadly steady in the current band around EUR 7.80–8.65/kg over the next three days, with marginal upside risk on active export inquiries.
• FOB Ankara (TR): Similar stability anticipated near prevailing levels for sulphured No. 2–3, closely tracking Malatya quotes.
• FCA EU (NL, PL): Dried apricots of Turkish origin likely to remain 0.5–1.5 EUR/kg above equivalent FOB values, with a modest firming tendency if fresh replacement offers from Türkiye do not soften.