Turkish Dried Apricots Hold Firm as Malatya Watches Weather Risks

Turkish dried apricot prices are stable in late May, with both FOB Malatya/Ankara and EU FCA offers unchanged over the past two weeks. Weather is seasonally warm and mostly dry, and while recent hail and localised storm damage in Malatya has raised concern for fresh-crop yields, it has not yet translated into price spikes. The market is entering a weather‑sensitive but currently balanced phase. Stock levels from the 2025/26 crop appear adequate, keeping sellers calm despite softer export performance earlier in the year. Buyers in Europe are meeting nearby needs but remain cautious about extending coverage until the new crop outlook is clearer. Short‑term, flat price action is likely to persist unless further hail or storms in Malatya significantly affect perceived 2026/27 crop potential.

Prices & Spreads

Dried apricot prices from Turkey are steady across key grades. Recent indicative levels (FOB/FCA, converted to EUR) show no change between mid and late May for Malatya unsulphured and EU‑stored cubes, with sulphured material also flat. The lack of fresh export buying pressure and still‑comfortable stocks are capping any weather‑related upside for now.

Supply, Weather & Local Factors (TR)

Malatya remains the core of global dried apricot supply, with the province providing the majority of Turkey’s dried output. In the past week, the region experienced intense showers and hail, with local reports confirming damage to some apricot orchards, particularly in areas hit by heavy downpours and ice pellets on 23 May. While these events are serious for affected farmers, they appear localised rather than region‑wide at this stage.

Looking ahead from 27–29 May, the official weekly outlook for eastern Turkey points to mostly partly‑cloudy, seasonally warm conditions initially, with a cooler and more unsettled pattern and increasing rain chances pushing eastward by around 29 May. Day length is now over 14.5 hours with early sunrises near 05:06–05:07 and sunsets around 19:40–19:42 in Malatya, supporting strong vegetative development of the 2026 crop. So far there is no indication of widespread frost, but repeated convective storms or hail in the coming weeks remain the key weather risk for new‑crop sizing and quality.

In addition to weather, seismic activity has been elevated around Malatya in May, with several felt earthquakes around the province. To date there are no reports that quakes have materially disrupted agricultural operations or supply chains, but they underscore a generally fragile local infrastructure backdrop heading into the main growing season.

Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey retains its role as a leading dried fruit exporter, with official data for early 2026 showing robust dried fruit exports overall, even as Malatya’s total exports across all sectors fell around 15% year‑on‑year in the first two months. Market commentary highlights that dried apricot exports in the current marketing year have been softer than in previous seasons, as high prices and macro uncertainty weighed on some traditional buyers.

European demand for dried fruits remains structurally strong, helped by health‑oriented consumption trends and stable usage in the bakery, cereal and snack segments. Nonetheless, in the absence of a new weather shock, buyers are not rushing to extend long‑term cover. Spot and nearby positions into the EU are being filled from existing Turkish supply and EU warehouses, keeping FCA prices in the Netherlands and Poland broadly in line with FOB Turkey.

Short‑Term Outlook (3–7 days)

With prices flat across all main TR grades through late May and no immediate sign of a broad crop loss, the near‑term balance looks neutral. Local wholesale prices for fresh produce in Malatya show normal seasonal dynamics but no panic signal for dried product. The key watchpoint is whether further storms replicate or exceed last week’s hail damage pockets.

Weather forecasts suggest a transition from warm, mostly dry conditions toward a cooler, more unstable pattern by 29 May, increasing the probability of convective showers and potential hail again in Eastern Anatolia. If damage remains scattered, current dried prices are likely to hold. A clearly documented, region‑wide hit to orchards, however, would quickly flip sentiment, with exporters attempting to lift offers ahead of the next campaign.

Trading Recommendations

• EU buyers with short coverage (Q3–Q4 2026): Use current stability in FOB and FCA prices to secure at least partial cover on core grades (unsulphured nos. 3–5, sulphured nos. 3–5). Upside risk from additional hail or storms outweighs near‑term downside from weak export demand.
• Importers with comfortable stocks: Maintain a wait‑and‑see approach on fringe items and smaller cubes, watching Malatya weather and any new crop assessments into early June before extending beyond regular replacement purchases.
• Turkish packers/exporters: Consider locking in forward sales on a portion of inventory while prices are stable and logistics are functioning normally, but retain flexibility in case weather‑driven bullish headlines in June allow for modest premiums.

3‑Day Price Direction Signal (TR & EU)

• FOB Malatya/Ankara (unsulphured and sulphured, all main sizes): Sideways in the next 3 days, with only a low‑probability risk of +1–2% intraday moves on fresh hail news.
• FCA Netherlands (cubes, Turkish origin): Sideways; good nearby availability and no freight shock expected to move prices materially.
• FCA Poland (whole no. 8, TR‑1123): Sideways; offers are stable and closely tracking Turkish FOB indications.