Turkish Dried Apricots: Prices Flat but Weather and Low Crop Cap Upside

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding broadly steady at late-April levels in euro terms, with both sulphured and unsulphured Malatya FOB quotes trading in a narrow band and no immediate breakout signal. A weak lira and calm spot demand are offsetting a clearly tighter 2026 crop outlook, keeping nearby values stable but leaving the market asymmetrically skewed to upside risk into early May.

With Malatya providing the bulk of Türkiye’s dried apricot output, flat prices at the end of April mask a structurally tighter balance sheet. Local farmer representatives now openly flag a low‑yield 2026 harvest, potentially halving dried output versus a normal 100,000 t season, while exporters still report adequate nearby cover and no panic buying. Over the next few days, benign, mild weather during the sensitive post‑bloom stage reduces immediate frost risk, but any shift in demand from Europe or MENA could quickly test today’s balanced tone.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Fresh indications for Turkish dried apricots show a broadly sideways market compared with mid‑April. Market commentary from 28 April confirms FOB Malatya offers for standard sulphured No.4–5 grades hovering around EUR 8.0–8.2/kg, matching current quote structures for similar products. Unsulphured grades from Malatya trade at similar or slightly softer levels for lower sizes, while organic material continues to command a clear premium above EUR 9/kg on an FOB basis.

EU‑warehouse cubes of Turkish origin are also described as stable, with tight ranges and no fresh upside break in recent sessions. A persistently weak Turkish lira around TRY 52–53 per EUR in late April helps cap euro‑denominated offers despite domestic cost inflation, preserving Türkiye’s competitiveness against other origins. Overall, the flat curve from No.1–5 and cubes points to a market in balance, but sensitive to any new crop or demand shock.

Product (TR origin)	Location / Term	Price range (EUR/kg)	Trend vs mid‑April
Dried apricots, sulphured No.4–5	FOB Malatya	≈ 8.0–8.2	Stable / flat
Dried apricots, unsulphured mid‑grades	FOB Malatya	≈ 7.8–8.0	Stable
Organic dried apricots	FOB Malatya / Ankara	≈ 9.0–10.4	Stable
Cubes (various sizes)	EU warehouse (NL, FCA)	≈ 5.6–6.5	Stable

🌍 Supply, Crop & Demand Drivers

Türkiye remains the global leader in dried apricots, with Malatya alone accounting for the overwhelming majority of national dried output and exports. New domestic commentary on 28 April points to a significantly reduced 2026 crop, with Malatya’s dried apricot production expected at around 50,000 t versus a normal 100,000 t, after damage in the previous season and ongoing tree‑health and yield concerns. This projected halving of output is the key medium‑term bullish factor lurking behind today’s flat spot prices.

On the demand side, Europe remains the dominant export destination for Turkish dried apricots, supported by established processing capacity and long‑standing trade links. Current reports suggest European buyers are generally well covered nearby and reluctant to extend coverage aggressively before the new‑crop picture fully crystallises, helping to suppress immediate price volatility. However, severe frost‑related losses in Ukraine’s 2026 apricot crop, with some regions expected to lose more than half of flower buds, are already fuelling expectations of higher local prices there and could redirect regional demand toward Turkish origin later in the season.

🌦️ Weather Outlook (TR – Malatya & Ankara)

Weather in the core production zones is currently benign. Forecasts for Malatya from 29 April to 1 May point to mostly sunny, pleasant conditions with daytime highs around 21–23°C and cool nights near 9°C, with only a chance of localized thunderstorms on 1 May. Ankara, another key processing and trading hub, is also expected to see mostly sunny weather on 29–30 April with highs around 21–22°C, before turning cooler and more cloudy with light rain on 1 May.

Crucially, no imminent frost risk is indicated for Malatya during this short‑term window, reducing the probability of additional bloom or fruit‑set damage on top of earlier season stress. Together with earlier imagery showing widespread and timely bloom in early April, the immediate agronomic outlook is neutral‑to‑slightly positive for fruit development, though it does not undo expectations of a generally low‑yield year.

📊 Fundamentals & Currency Context

Structural fundamentals point to a tighter forward balance despite today’s calm surface. Academic and sector analyses continue to underline Malatya’s near‑monopoly status in Türkiye’s dried apricot supply and the sensitivity of prices to agricultural input costs. With local reports now clearly flagging a below‑average 2026 harvest, any sequence of weather issues or logistics disruptions could translate quickly into firmer export prices once buyers move to replenish forward positions.

At the same time, macro and FX factors are cushioning EUR‑based importers. The Turkish lira’s weakness versus the euro in late April is dampening the pass‑through of domestic inflation into export offers, and modern, large‑scale processing plants in Malatya continue to promote year‑round supply and efficient export logistics. These elements collectively argue for a market that may stay range‑bound in the very short term, yet is fundamentally skewed toward gradual firming rather than sustained downside.

📆 Trading Outlook & 3‑Day Price Indication

• Short‑term (next 3 days): Expect largely sideways pricing in EUR for both sulphured and unsulphured Turkish dried apricots, with FOB Malatya No.4–5 grades likely to remain around EUR 8.0–8.2/kg barring a sudden demand shock.
• Buyers: For nearby needs, consider maintaining only modest coverage at current flat levels, but start planning incremental coverage for Q3–Q4 given the emerging low‑crop narrative and potential for later‑season tightness.
• Sellers / processors: With no frost threat in the immediate forecast and subdued spot demand, holding offers steady while closely monitoring European tender activity and regional crop news appears prudent; aggressive discounting is not warranted by fundamentals.

Region / Market	Product focus	3‑day outlook (EUR)	Direction
Malatya, TR – FOB	Sulphured No.4–5	≈ 8.0–8.2/kg	Sideways
Malatya/Ankara, TR – FOB	Unsulphured mid‑grades	≈ 7.8–8.0/kg	Sideways
EU (NL, PL) – FCA warehouses	Cubes / industrial	≈ 5.5–6.5/kg	Sideways