Turkish Dried Apricots: Softening FOBs While EU Demand Holds Steady

Turkish dried apricot prices are edging slightly lower on FOB Malatya/Ankara offers, while FCA stocks in the EU remain steady, pointing to a mildly softer producer market but stable downstream values in early spring 2026.

The market is transitioning out of the tight 2025 frost-hit season into a more balanced outlook, with calmer weather in Malatya this week and no immediate frost threat. Export flows continue to be dominated by whole fruit to the EU and UK, with buyers keeping coverage conservative after last year’s sharp price spike. Short term, limited spot demand and comfortable EU inventories cap rallies, but memories of the 2025 crop loss keep growers reluctant to discount aggressively.

📈 Prices & Spreads

All prices below are approximate and converted to EUR at 1 USD ≈ 0.93 EUR where needed.

Product	Spec / Term	Location	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	1–2 Week Change
Dried apricots, no. 1 unsulphured	FOB	Malatya (TR)	≈ 8.55	▼ about 6% vs 9.05
Dried apricots, no. 2 unsulphured	FOB	Malatya (TR)	≈ 8.65	▼ about 1%
Dried apricots, no. 5 unsulphured	FOB	Malatya (TR)	≈ 7.80	▼ about 2–3%
Dried apricots, organic no. 4 unsulphured	FOB	Ankara (TR)	≈ 9.30	▼ marginally
Dried apricots, sulphured no. 5–6	FOB	Malatya (TR)	≈ 7.20 / 6.90	Flat to ▼ ~1–2%
Dried apricots, cubes (no. 3–5)	FCA	Dordrecht (NL)	≈ 5.90–5.95	Stable
Dried apricots, no. 8 TR-1123	FCA	Łódź (PL)	≈ 5.25	▲ slightly vs mid-March

FOB origin prices for standard unsulphured grades in Malatya have eased by roughly 0.10–0.50 EUR/kg since early March, with the sharpest correction seen in large whole sizes (no. 1 and 3). Sulphured lines show only marginal softening. EU warehouse cubes remain flat, indicating downstream distributors are not yet passing through lower FOBs aggressively.

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

The Turkish dried apricot sector is still digesting the impact of the severe frost of April 11–12, 2025, which caused an almost total loss in the 2025 fresh and dried apricot crop. This led to a 61% year-on-year fall in export volume and pushed average unit export prices in August 2025 up by about 47% to roughly 7.43 USD/kg (≈ 6.90 EUR/kg).

Cumulatively for January–August 2025, Turkish dried apricot export volumes were down around 15% versus the previous year, while average unit export values eased modestly to about 5.45 USD/kg (≈ 5.07 EUR/kg), suggesting some demand rationing at high price levels but still historically firm values. European markets (EU + UK) remain the main destination, taking close to 29,000 tonnes annually in recent seasons, followed by the USA and Asia–Pacific.

With the 2025/26 marketing year constrained by low carryover, exporters are managing sales pace carefully. However, the recent softening in FOB offers implies that pipeline coverage in Europe and key export markets is now more comfortable, while new-crop risk for 2026/27 has not yet materialised. Buyers are spreading purchases rather than front-loading coverage, keeping spot demand moderate.

⛅ Weather & Crop Outlook – Malatya Focus

In Malatya, the core Turkish apricot region, the short-term outlook for March 24–26, 2026 points to cool, unsettled but non-severe conditions: mostly cloudy with a few showers, daytime highs around 11–12°C and overnight lows near 2–4°C. These temperatures remain above critical frost thresholds for early bud stages, limiting immediate weather-related stress on orchards.

Recent heavy rainfall events further southeast (Şanlıurfa, Diyarbakır, Gaziantep, Kilis, Mardin, Elazığ, Siirt, Adıyaman and Tunceli) have caused flooding, but Malatya has largely avoided the worst impacts. Soil moisture in Eastern Anatolia should benefit from these broader regional rains, supporting early vegetative growth, although growers remain highly sensitive to any forecast of late spring frost after the extreme 2025 damage.

📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers

• Tight but improving supply base: The 2025 frost-driven crop loss left exporters with reduced stocks and high prices through late 2025. The current easing in FOB levels suggests a gradual normalisation as the industry anticipates a more regular 2026 crop, weather permitting.
• Demand rationing at high prices: Elevated unit export prices in mid-2025 coincided with lower volumes, indicating some demand destruction or substitution in importing markets. Stable FCA prices in the EU this month hint that end-user demand is steady but not strong enough to support further increases.
• EU and UK as price-setters: With Europe accounting for the largest share of Turkish dried apricot imports, price expectations from EU buyers remain central to FOB negotiations, particularly for higher-value unsulphured and organic categories.
• Macro and FX backdrop: Continued lira weakness against major currencies supports export competitiveness in EUR terms, but domestic cost inflation for labour and inputs limits how far farm-gate and FOB prices can fall without squeezing grower margins.

📆 3–7 Day Market & Trading Outlook

With no short-term frost risk in Malatya and only modest spot demand, the near-term balance is mildly bearish for FOB Turkey while EU ex-warehouse prices hold flat. Any shift in weather forecasts towards sub-zero nights during flowering in April would quickly reintroduce weather premium into the curve.

🎯 Trading Suggestions (Short Term)

• Importers / industrial users (EU): Use the current small dip in FOB Turkey prices for whole unsulphured grades to extend coverage modestly into Q2–Q3 2026, especially for standard sizes no. 3–5, while keeping some volume open for potential further softness.
• Retail packers: Maintain blended portfolios of sulphured and unsulphured product. Sulphured lines remain discount to unsulphured and appear less volatile; use this to protect margins if consumer demand softens.
• Turkish exporters: Avoid aggressive discounts on premium organic and large sizes given limited carryover; instead, target volume sales in mid-grades and industrial cubes where EU stocks are most comfortable.

📍 3-Day Directional Price Outlook (EUR, indicative)

• FOB Malatya/Ankara – whole unsulphured: Slightly softer to sideways (−0.5% to 0%) as sellers test demand but avoid deep cuts.
• FOB Malatya – sulphured grades: Largely stable (±0.5%) with balanced interest from value-focused buyers.
• FCA EU (NL, PL) – cubes and industrial: Sideways; current warehouse offers already reflect earlier FOB strength and are unlikely to move over the next three days.