Turkish Dried Apricots: Stable Core, Firmer Sulphured Prices as Bloom Advances

Turkish dried apricot prices are broadly stable on unsulphured grades while sulphured qualities have firmed 7–15% since late March, as exporters reassess limited old-crop stocks against strong European demand. Mild weather during bloom in Malatya has eased immediate frost concerns, but recent national frost alerts keep a risk premium in the market.

Prices are being set in a tight balance between constrained inventory after last year’s frost-hit crop and cautious buying as the 2026/27 harvest potential becomes clearer. Malatya orchards are now in full bloom under mostly dry, seasonally mild conditions, supporting expectations for a normal crop if late frost is avoided. Export flows to Europe remain robust and keep FOB offers in Türkiye firm, while FCA prices for cubes in the Netherlands and spot stock in Poland trade at a discount to origin. In this environment, nearby downside looks limited, with a slightly firmer tone on sulphured and premium organic lots.

📈 Prices & Market Tone

FOB Türkiye prices for Malatya-origin unsulphured dried apricots are broadly steady week-on-week around EUR 7.8–8.7/kg for sizes No. 5–1 (conventional), with organic equivalents near EUR 9.3–10.4/kg. Sulphured grades (2,000 ppm) have moved higher over the last three weeks, with No. 5–8 now roughly EUR 7.3–8.2/kg, reflecting a 7–15% increase from late March lows, as exporters factor in tight old-crop stocks and solid demand from Europe. FCA prices for Turkish cubes in the Netherlands remain significantly lower, mostly EUR 3.35–6.50/kg depending on cut and quality, while a TR-1123 No. 8 spec in Poland trades around EUR 5.15/kg FCA, underlining the origin premium on FOB Malatya and Ankara.

Product	Spec / Grade	Location / Term	Price (EUR/kg)	1-month trend
Dried apricots	No. 1 unsulphured	Malatya FOB	≈ 8.55	Stable
Dried apricots	No. 2 unsulphured	Malatya FOB	≈ 8.65 (conv.) / 10.35 (org.)	Stable
Dried apricots	No. 4–5 sulphured 2000 ppm	Malatya FOB	≈ 8.0–8.2	Firming
Dried apricots	No. 8 sulphured 2000 ppm	Malatya FOB	≈ 7.3	Firming
Dried apricot cubes	No. 4–6	NL, Dordrecht FCA	≈ 6.0–6.15	Slightly higher

🌍 Supply, Demand & Weather Drivers

Turkey remains the dominant force in global dried apricots, with Malatya alone accounting for around 95% of national dried apricot output and roughly half of fresh apricot production. Recent export data and trade commentary indicate Turkish dried apricot shipments have hovered near 77,000 tons annually, with export revenue close to EUR 370–380 million, underlining resilient global demand. Europe (EU + UK) continues to absorb the bulk of these volumes, keeping FOB Turkish offers well supported even as buyers show some resistance to further price increases.

On the supply side, Malatya orchards entered full bloom around 1 April under mild and mostly dry conditions, with imagery and local reports confirming widespread flowering across the province. This is a welcome contrast to April 2025, when severe frost caused near-total crop losses in key apricot areas and slashed exportable supplies. However, late frost remains a structural risk across Anatolia, and the Turkish State Meteorological Service has only recently reiterated general agricultural frost alerts for parts of Central and Eastern Anatolia, keeping producers cautious about forward selling.

For the next three days (15–17 April), Malatya and Ankara are forecast to see mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies with daytime highs near 19–22°C and nighttime lows 6–11°C – comfortably above critical frost thresholds for blooming orchards. This benign short-term outlook supports normal fruit set prospects and reduces imminent weather-related downside risk, though the memory of last year’s losses is keeping a modest weather risk premium embedded in current prices.

📊 Fundamentals & External Context

Industry and buyer reports continue to describe Q1–Q2 2026 dried apricot prices as “high and firm”, reflecting the carry-over impact of last year’s frost-damaged crop and constrained stock levels in Malatya warehouses. Exporters note that current-crop stocks are “adequate but well sold”, meaning there is little pressure to discount for volume, especially on standard-sized sulphured grades where export programs to Europe and the Middle East remain active.

Turkey’s overall agri-food export performance remains strong, and the country still holds the world’s leading share in apricot production and dried apricot exports, ensuring continued international interest in Malatya product. With European importers heavily reliant on Turkish origin for retail and industrial use, alternative suppliers have gained only limited share despite previous price spikes, leaving Turkey’s dried apricot complex structurally tight whenever weather issues threaten the crop.

📆 Short-Term Outlook & Trading Recommendations

The immediate weather outlook in central and eastern Türkiye is supportive, and with orchards now fully in bloom, the market is likely to trade in a narrow, firm range over the coming week. Absent a new frost scare, upside for standard grades appears capped in the very near term as some destination markets show price sensitivity, but meaningful downside is also limited by low on-farm stocks and steady export demand.

• Importers / Buyers: Cover prompt needs and part of Q2 volumes now, especially for sulphured No. 4–6 and premium organic unsulphured, where offers have already moved higher. Consider waiting for clearer 2026/27 crop signals before extending coverage deep into Q4.
• Exporters / Packers: Maintain firm offer levels on sulphured grades and higher counts; only negotiate on off-sizes or cubes where European FCA supply is more comfortable. Avoid overselling new-crop positions until post-bloom weather risk has clearly passed.
• Industrial Users: Where possible, blend some lower-cost cubes or smaller sizes into recipes to manage input costs while keeping a base of Malatya-origin whole fruit for quality assurance.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Indication (Direction)

• Malatya FOB (unsulphured No. 1–5): EUR 7.8–8.7/kg – expected stable next 3 days, with a mildly firm tone on organic lots.
• Malatya/Ankara FOB (sulphured No. 2–8, 2000 ppm): EUR 7.3–8.5/kg – bias slightly higher as exporters test demand after recent increases.
• EU Warehouses (NL, PL FCA cubes and No. 8): EUR 3.35–6.50/kg – likely stable to slightly firm, tracking origin prices with a short lag.