Turkish Dried Apricots: Stable to Firm Prices as Frost Risk Fades

Turkish dried apricot prices are holding broadly steady to slightly firm into mid‑April, with FOB Malatya levels unchanged and recent gains in European FCA cubes consolidating rather than extending. Calm, cool weather in Malatya removes immediate frost risk, shifting market focus back to tight farmer selling, elevated Turkish inflation and currency dynamics.

The market tone is balanced: European inventories and still‑measured demand cap sharp near‑term rallies, yet replacement costs in Türkiye and the memory of last year’s frost‑driven shortage leave little room for downside. Exporters report steady inquiries from core EU buyers and the Middle East, but without the aggressive forward coverage that would signal a new bull leg. For now, buyers with coverage into early summer can stay patient, while uncovered shorts face a gentle but persistent upward bias in offers.

📈 Prices & Spreads

Latest indications confirm a flat FOB structure in Türkiye alongside steady to firm FCA levels in Europe. Conventional unsulphured sizes 1–5 are quoted around EUR 8.55–8.00/kg FOB Malatya/Ankara, while sulphured 2,000 ppm grades cluster near EUR 7.90–7.20/kg, with jumbo no. 1 sulphured close to EUR 8.70/kg FOB.

European FCA cubes of Turkish origin have firmed modestly in recent weeks and are now consolidating at those higher levels, in line with the flat but historically elevated global price environment for dried apricots in Q1–Q2 2026.

Product	Location / Term	Recent Trend	Indicative Level (EUR/kg)
Dried apricots, sulphured 2000 ppm, mid sizes	FOB Malatya/TR	Stable	≈ 7.20–7.90
Dried apricots, unsulphured sizes 3–4	FOB Malatya/TR	Stable	≈ 8.00–8.10
Dried apricot cubes, standard grades	FCA NL	Slightly firm vs March	Mid‑single‑digit EUR/kg (origin‑dependent)

🌍 Supply, Demand & Trade Flows

Turkey remains the dominant dried apricot supplier globally, with Malatya at the core and an export share around two‑thirds of world trade. After the severe frost of April 2025 that slashed the crop and drove export unit values sharply higher later that year, international buyers have become more cautious about under‑coverage, supporting today’s firm price floor despite better 2026 orchard conditions.

Current export market commentary points to steady EU and Middle Eastern demand, with no signs of panic buying but also limited discounting from Turkish packers. Global ingredient demand for dried fruits and nuts remains resilient, helped by health‑driven snacking trends and the broad strength of nut and dried fruit categories, in which Turkish exporters are key suppliers.

📊 Fundamentals & Weather (TR)

Short‑term fundamentals are shaped less by weather risk and more by structural tightness and macro conditions. Calm, seasonally cool weather in Malatya over April 10–12, with daytime highs around 8–11°C and lows near 2–3°C, is cloudy with scattered showers but without sub‑zero nights, implying low immediate frost risk for orchards. This is a notable contrast with April 2025, when hard frosts caused heavy blossom losses and a subsequent export squeeze.

Macro‑financially, Türkiye continues to wrestle with high inflation (around 31%) and a weaker lira, factors that encourage farmers to hold back stocks as an inflation hedge and support firm local TRY prices even if EUR benchmarks look stable. Tight farmer selling, together with limited on‑farm inventories after last year’s poor crop, reduces the likelihood of any meaningful price correction ahead of new‑crop visibility.

📆 Trading Outlook & Price Direction (3‑Day)

With no acute weather threat and export demand steady, the near‑term directional bias for Turkish dried apricots is sideways to mildly firmer.

• Short‑term buyers (Q2 coverage): Use current flat FOB levels as a window to top up; downside appears limited while upside risk persists if pre‑season export demand accelerates.
• Industrial users in EU: Consider layering FCA purchases rather than waiting for a dip; stable but tight fundamentals and firm replacement costs argue against significant near‑term easing.
• Farmers & packers (TR): Current price stability supports patient selling, but any lira strengthening or macro policy shift could encourage faster marketing later in the season.

3‑day regional outlook (directional, EUR basis):

• FOB Malatya/Ankara (TR): Stable; no weather‑driven moves expected through April 13, with a slight upward bias if export inquiries pick up.
• FCA NL / PL (EU hubs): Stable to marginally firmer as earlier cost increases from Türkiye filter fully into spot offers and logistics remain orderly.