U.S. Sugar Imports Projected to Rise in FY2026
U.S. sugar imports are forecast to reach 2.37 million metric tons (raw value) in FY2026, reflecting strong demand from refiners and food manufacturers despite quota limitations.
The March forecast represents an increase from the earlier estimate of 2.15 million metric tons, highlighting growing reliance on imported sugar to balance domestic supply.
WTO Raw Sugar TRQ Shortfall Remains at 131,000 MT
The World Trade Organization (WTO) raw sugar tariff-rate quota (TRQ) for FY2026 is projected to experience a shortfall of approximately 131,000 metric tons, unchanged from the previous month’s estimate.
Under the WTO minimum quota, the United States allocated 1.12 million metric tons of raw sugar imports to global suppliers.
However, not all countries are expected to fully utilize their quotas, resulting in the projected shortfall.
Mexico Remains a Key Sugar Supplier
Mexico continues to play a major role in supplying sugar to the U.S. market under bilateral trade agreements.
Imports from Mexico are projected at 219,638 metric tons in FY2026, reflecting stable trade flows between the two countries.
Mexican sugar shipments remain outside the WTO quota system due to the U.S.–Mexico suspension agreements governing bilateral sugar trade.
Re-Export Program Imports Increasing
The U.S. sugar re-export program allows refiners to import sugar for processing and export of sugar-containing products.
Under this program, imports are forecast to reach 250,000 metric tons in FY2026, an increase from 226,796 metric tons in earlier estimates.
The program supports domestic manufacturers producing products such as confectionery, beverages, and processed foods.
High-Duty Sugar Imports Continue to Grow
Imports of high-tier (over-quota) sugar, which face significantly higher tariffs, are also expected to rise.
Forecast high-duty imports are estimated at 589,855 metric tons in FY2026, reflecting stronger market demand despite higher import costs.
These imports typically occur when domestic sugar prices rise enough to offset the high tariff costs.
Total Tariff-Rate Quota Imports Reach 1.32 Million MT
Total imports entering under various tariff-rate quotas—including WTO quotas and free trade agreements—are projected to reach 1.32 million metric tons in FY2026.
The largest quotas are allocated under:
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WTO raw sugar TRQ
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Free Trade Agreements such as CAFTA-DR
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Specialty sugar quotas
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USMCA refined sugar quotas for Canada.
🔎 CMB Outlook
The U.S. sugar market continues to rely heavily on imports to meet domestic demand.
Key market signals include:
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Persistent WTO quota shortfalls
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Rising re-export program imports
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Increasing high-duty sugar shipments
These trends indicate tightening domestic supply conditions and stronger demand from U.S. food and beverage manufacturers.
Looking ahead, global sugar production levels and domestic price trends will determine whether U.S. refiners continue increasing imports under high-duty tariffs.
