📉 Uncertainty Looms Over Oilseed Markets – Trade Disruptions and Supply Adjustments Shake Confidence
📍 Oilseed markets continue to struggle, caught between trade disputes and shifting supply dynamics. Rapeseed futures in Europe remain under pressure, while canola markets reflect ongoing disruptions in global trade flows. Meanwhile, soybeans show signs of resilience as South American harvests progress and global demand fluctuates.
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📊 1. Market Overview: Futures Prices & Trends
🌍 CBoT (Chicago Board of Trade) – Soybeans & Products
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (ct/bu) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 1,016.00 | €342.84/t | +5.25 | +0.52% |
| July 2025 | 1,030.50 | €348.40/t | +5.50 | +0.54% |
| November 2025 | 1,043.50 | €353.10/t | +5.00 | +0.50% |
📉 Euronext (MATIF) – Rapeseed Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 468.50 | -2.50 | -0.53% |
| August 2025 | 457.00 | -2.25 | -0.49% |
| November 2025 | 460.00 | -1.25 | -0.27% |
📌 ICECA (Winnipeg) – Canola Futures
| 📅 Contract | 💰 Closing Price (CAD/t) | 💶 Converted Price (EUR/t) | 📉 Change | 📊 % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | 560.50 | €389/t | -6.40 | -1.14% |
| July 2025 | 573.90 | €398/t | -6.10 | -1.06% |
| November 2025 | 584.80 | €405/t | -5.00 | -0.85% |
🌍 2. Market Drivers & Influencing Factors
📌 Key Market Developments
- China’s Trade Barriers Reshape Global Rapeseed and Canola Markets 🇨🇳📉
→ New tariffs have led to supply shortages and rising demand for alternative sources.
→ Traders remain cautious as China seeks new suppliers in Russia, Ukraine, and India. - Soybean Markets React to Production Adjustments 🌱
→ Harvest forecasts continue to shift as South American supply increases.
→ Market sentiment remains divided over the long-term impact on global prices. - Escalating Trade Tensions Between the EU and the U.S. 🌎
→ Potential tariffs could disrupt existing trade flows and impact soybean supply chains.
→ The European feed industry warns of possible shortages if new tariffs take effect.
⛅ 3. 14-Day Weather Forecast
🇦🇷 Argentina: Favorable Weather Supports Crop Outlook
📍 Current Conditions:
→ Moisture levels remain supportive for late-season growth.
📆 14-Day Outlook:
- 🌡️ Temperatures: Expected to remain stable.
- 🌧️ Rainfall: Continued precipitation could improve conditions.
- 🚨 Impact: Could help stabilize supply expectations.
🔮 4. Price Forecast for the Next 3 Days
📉 Rapeseed (Euronext)
- Trend: Market sentiment remains cautious amid trade instability.
- Resistance Level: €480/t
- Support Level: €460/t
- 📊 Expected Range: €465 – €475/t
📉 Soybeans (CBoT)
- Trend: Market reacting to shifting demand and potential supply bottlenecks.
- Resistance Level: 1,025 ct/bu
- Support Level: 1,000 ct/bu
- 📊 Expected Range: 1,005 – 1,015 ct/bu
📉 5. Long-Term Market Data: Stocks & Production
| 📅 Season | 🌎 Global Ending Stocks (MMT) | 📉 Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 MMT |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 MMT |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 MMT |
🔍 6. Key Takeaways & Recommendations
📉 Market Insights:
- Rapeseed and canola markets remain vulnerable to trade restrictions and supply chain disruptions.
- Soybeans are holding firm but remain exposed to shifting demand and South American export competition.
- Uncertainty over tariffs and trade flows keeps volatility high.
🔮 Market remains in a state of flux – attention shifts to trade negotiations and upcoming policy decisions.