US Soybean Market Holds Firm: Consumption, Acreage Growth & Global Stocks Reshape Outlook

The global soybean market is navigating a delicate balance driven largely by US supply-side dynamics, evolving demand, and growing global inventories. US domestic soybean processing has reached record levels—January crush rates set all-time highs, underlining robust local demand. However, the complex picture is colored by high soyoil stocks, which have swelled to their largest levels since April 2023 due to slower soyoil sales, threatening to overhang prices in the near term. On the supply front, the USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum estimated a 2026 US soybean planting area of 85 million acres, up by 3.8 million from the previous year and slightly exceeding market consensus.

Production is forecast to reach 4.45 billion bushels, with flat yields year-on-year, reflecting steady advances in acreage rather than yield improvements. At the same time, the International Grains Council reports that world soybean stocks for 2025/26 have climbed to 79 million tons—a rise of 2 million from the prior month—on account of both reduced consumption and increased output. This macro backdrop, paired with anticipations for moderate exports and continued high meal demand, places the market at a crossroads: strong domestic usage supports values, but ample stocks and heavy soyoil inventories may cap rallies. This makes for an environment demanding vigilance from both producers and traders as they weigh marketing strategies and risk management in the weeks ahead.

📈 Prices & Recent Trading Action

Contract	Last Price	Change	Volume	Sentiment
CBOT Soybeans Mar 26	1,139.75 USc/bu	-1.25 (-0.11%)	1,801	Bearish/Sideways
CBOT Soybeans May 26	1,154.75 USc/bu	-1.25 (-0.11%)	3,714	Bearish/Sideways
CBOT Soybean Oil Mar 26	59.42 USc/lb	-0.26 (-0.44%)	1,756	Bearish
CBOT Soymeal Mar 26	305.80 USD/tn.sh.	+1.00 (+0.33%)	1,555	Supportive
DCE Soybeans Mar 26	4,564 CNY/t	+55 (+1.21%)	18,619	Bullish

Supplemental Spot FOB Offers

Origin	Type	Price (EUR/kg)	Update Date
US	No. 2	0.52	2026-02-14
UA	–	0.34	2026-02-13
IN	Sortex Clean	0.92	2026-02-13

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• US Processing Strength: January US crush hit all-time high for the month, buoying soybean demand and potentially curbing the rise in 2025/26 US ending stocks.
• Soyoil Imbalance: Despite high demand for beans, US soyoil sales lag due to elevated prices, pushing stocks to the highest since April 2023—a factor likely to weigh on the oil complex in coming weeks.
• USDA Acreage/Production Outlook: USDA forecasts 85 million acres in 2026 (vs. 81.2 million previous year) and 4.45 billion bu output, essentially matching trade expectations but signaling a continued supply build-up.
• World Stocks Grow: IGC reports global end-stocks for 2025/26 have increased to 79 million t (+2 Mt vs Jan) as production nudges higher while consumption slips by 1 Mt.
• Export Outlook: USDA weekly export reports are expected to show 375,000–1.2M t beans sold for the week ending Feb 12.

📊 Fundamentals Snapshot

• US Ending Stocks: Forecast to rise, but potential curbed by strong crush rates.
• China DCE Futures: Soybean prices rallying, indicating regional demand strength. DCE May 26 +1.74% last week.
• Speculative Positioning: Open interest remains elevated in CBOT contracts, but technicals reflect sideways or weak sentiment near-term.
• Rapeseed Cross-Market: Euronext rapeseed prices at 7-month highs; some switching or cross-hedging possible among oilseed processors.

🌦️ Weather & Forward-Looking Yield Factors

• US Growing Regions: Current outlook not suggesting major adverse events. Mild winter supports early fieldwork and favorable conditions for spring planting.
• South America: Last month saw patchy drought in S Brazil—monitor for short-term stress episodes; otherwise, main production regions report adequate moisture.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country/Region	2025/26 Output (bn bu or Mt)	2025/26 End Stocks (Mt)
USA	4.45 bn bu	(Expected stable/growing)
Brazil	(Near record, est. above 150 Mt)	(Sizable, but weather sensitive)
Argentina	(Recovering, pending weather)	(Low stocks improving)
World (IGC)	(Production up 1 Mt MoM)	79 Mt (+2 Mt MoM)

🔎 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Processors: Consider forward coverage for soymeal needs; meal remains supported by demand fundamentals.
• Producers: Monitor basis and take advantage of rallies for old-crop sales; consider scaling in new-crop hedges, especially if acreage expansion materializes fully.
• Traders: Oil complex faces downside risk from high stocks and slow offtake in US—cautious approach to soyoil length recommended.
• Importers: Global stocks are building; exercise patience near term for physical coverage, but monitor any South American weather volatility.
• Speculators: Bearish bias in flat price, but regional spreads and meal/oil arbitrage still present opportunities.

📆 3-Day Reg’l Price Forecast (CBOT)

Date	Commodity	Price Range (USc/bu)	Trend
Feb 21	CBOT Soybeans Mar 26	1,130–1,145	Sideways/Bearish
Feb 22	CBOT Soybeans Mar 26	1,125–1,145	Sideways
Feb 23	CBOT Soybeans Mar 26	1,125–1,150	Slightly Higher Volatility