Vietnam Dried Guava FOB Hanoi Holds Steady Amid Firm Fruit Export Demand
Vietnam dried guava FOB Hanoi prices steady around EUR 4.80/kg amid strong fruit export demand and typical hot, wet July weather. Short-term stable outlook.
Prices
The latest FOB Hanoi indication for industrial-quality white dried guava from Vietnam stands around EUR 4.80/kg, converted from the quoted USD level using current FX. This level has been effectively flat over recent weeks, with weekly indications showing no meaningful change.
Spot domestic fresh guava prices are estimated near EUR 2.05–2.15/kg equivalent, based on July farm and wholesale indications for Vietnam, implying a still-healthy margin for processors at current dried export levels.
Supply & Demand
Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports rose about 18–18.5% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, reaching roughly USD 3.6–3.7 billion, with China taking just over half of total shipments. While official data do not isolate dried guava, guava and tropical mixed dried fruit have benefited from this broader demand, particularly into China and other Asian markets.
At the same time, Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable imports grew close to 30% in H1, highlighting robust domestic consumption and competition from imported products. For dried fruit packers, this means ample outlet opportunities but also strong price sensitivity at the retail level, which is helping to cap further upside in dried guava offers for now.
Weather & Crop Conditions (VN)
Hanoi is currently in the core of the hot, wet summer. Short-range forecasts for 20–22 July show daytime highs around 34–36°C with very humid conditions, scattered showers and thunderstorms typical for the rainy season. Such weather supports vegetative growth in guava orchards but raises disease and fruit-cracking risks, especially where orchard management and drainage are limited.
No acute extreme-weather disruption (such as typhoons or prolonged flooding) is signalled for northern Vietnam over the next few days based on national and regional meteorological outlooks. For dried guava, this points to normal seasonal quality risk rather than an immediate supply shock, consistent with the observed price stability.
Fundamentals & Policy
Vietnam’s overall agro-forestry-fishery exports increased by about 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2026, with fruit and vegetables among the standout performers, up nearly 18%. China remains the dominant buyer, accounting for about 51% of fruit and vegetable export value. Trade facilitation and new logistics routes to China are reinforcing this trend, indirectly supporting processed products such as dried guava.
On the regulatory side, guava (fresh and dried) remains classified under HS 0804.50 in Vietnam’s 2026 customs tariff, with MFN import duties on guava and other tropical fruits broadly unchanged compared with previous schedules. No recent tariff shock or SPS tightening has been reported in the last few days that would directly hit Vietnam’s dried guava exports.
3–5 Day Market & Trading Outlook
- Price bias: Sideways. With FOB Hanoi offers stable and no immediate weather or policy shock visible, dried guava prices are likely to remain in a narrow range around EUR 4.75–4.85/kg over the next 3–5 days.
- Exporters / processors: Use current stability to lock short-term contracts rather than hold out for higher prices. Focus on quality assurance and moisture control as humidity peaks; quality premiums will matter more than small price moves.
- Importers / buyers: Near-term downside appears limited given firm Vietnamese fruit export flows and solid demand from China. Consider covering August–September needs on current indications while retaining flexibility for Q4.
- Risk watch: Monitor regional storm activity and any surge in freight rates out of northern Vietnam ports, which could tighten FOB offers even if raw fruit remains available.