Vietnam Dried Guava Prices Hold Steady as Heat Builds in Hanoi

Dried guava export prices from Hanoi are currently flat in EUR terms, with stable FOB offers and no sign of short‑term tightness. Weather in northern Vietnam is hot and humid but largely seasonal over the next three days, posing limited immediate risk to supply. Vietnam’s guava sector is operating against a backdrop of firm domestic fresh guava prices and generally robust fruit and vegetable export performance. However, there is no evidence of acute disruption or demand shock specifically in dried guava. With Hanoi’s weather forecast pointing to typical mid‑July heat and scattered showers, field operations and processing are expected to continue without major interruption. Exporters face a broadly supportive macro environment for agri shipments, but competition from other dried fruits and consumer price sensitivity keep a lid on upside for now.

Prices

Dried guava FOB Hanoi is assessed around EUR 4.80–4.90/kg (converted from recent local USD offers), effectively unchanged over the past month. This aligns with firm but not spiking fresh guava prices in Vietnam, which are reported near USD 2.22/kg (about EUR 2.00/kg) in July 2026, up year-on-year but stable on a monthly basis.

Given stable raw fruit costs, modest energy prices, and no major freight shock reported in the last few days, spot dried guava offers for nearby shipment remain in a narrow range. The flat curve between prompt and 1–2 month forward positions indicates balanced nearby supply and demand rather than stockpiling or scarcity concerns.

Supply & Demand

Vietnam’s broader agro-forestry-fishery exports grew about 6% year-on-year in H1 2026, with June seeing a strong 10% y/y increase, underscoring resilient external demand for agricultural products, including fruits. While guava is a niche within this basket, the overall export backdrop is supportive for dried fruit sales.

Recent trade-promotion activities have focused on deepening fruit export channels to China and other regional markets, especially via Guangxi, which should benefit specialty products like dried guava by expanding buyer networks and tightening quality standards. At the same time, high domestic interest in healthy snacks and dried fruit blends for dairy and beverage applications underpins local processing demand, helping to absorb supply.

Weather & Crop Conditions (VN)

Short-term forecasts for Hanoi (July 19–22) indicate typical wet-season conditions: daily highs around 33–34°C, lows near 28–29°C, and frequent cloud cover with showers or thunderstorms. Several independent services show similar patterns of hot, humid weather and intermittent rainfall rather than extreme events.

Such conditions are seasonally normal for northern Vietnam in July and, in the absence of an imminent tropical storm warning, imply only localized disruptions to harvesting or transport. Moist, warm weather can increase disease pressure in guava orchards, but no acute regional outbreak or weather shock has been reported in the past few days that would materially affect dried guava raw material availability.

Fundamentals & Drivers

• Raw fruit pricing: Fresh guava in Vietnam remains relatively firm versus last year but shows no sharp week-on-week moves, helping stabilize processing margins.
• Export momentum: Strong mid-2026 fruit and vegetable export growth suggests healthy external demand, but this is diversified across many products; dried guava benefits indirectly without becoming a primary driver.
• Product mix competition: Processors and importers continue to weigh dried guava against more established dried fruits (mango, pineapple, berries), limiting the scope for aggressive price hikes given consumer sensitivity in snack and cereal categories.

Short-Term Outlook & Trading Ideas

• Price bias (next 1–2 weeks): Sideways to mildly firm in EUR terms, with any upside likely capped by competitive dried fruit pricing and stable weather.
• For buyers: Consider covering near-term needs now while the market is quiet and FOB Hanoi offers are flat; avoid overextending coverage unless signs of broader fruit supply stress emerge.
• For sellers: Maintain offer discipline close to current levels; discounts appear unnecessary unless larger-volume tenders require aggressive pricing to compete with alternative origins or fruits.

3-Day Directional Price Indication (VN)

• Hanoi FOB dried guava (EUR/kg): July 19–21: 4.8–4.9, expected stable, with only limited risk of intraday fluctuations from FX or freight quotes.