📈 Almond Market Surge: Prices Tighten Amid Global Trade Tensions and Crop Forecasts
Over recent months, the almond market has shown remarkable activity with prices firming significantly. The industrial-grade ST5% has escalated to approximately $3.22/lb FAS, with a notably narrow price gap of $0.20-$0.25/lb between it and top grades, a rarity in nearly two decades. This tightening of quality spreads has been driven by robust selling support for nearby shipments, particularly for Carmel types which are now scarce.
European buyers have been unexpectedly hit by these rising prices, having anticipated a decline. This situation has been further complicated by global trade uncertainties, notably last week’s announcement by the US of increased tariffs affecting nearly all countries. The potential imposition of the EU’s retaliatory 25% duties, currently deferred to December, could significantly impact import costs, prompting some importers to preemptively build stocks.
Looking ahead, the 2025 almond crop is projected to reach 2.8 billion lbs, based on an assessment of 1,360,000 bearing acres with a yield of 2060 lbs per acre. However, the full impact of recent price hikes on demand is not expected to be immediate but will unfold over the coming months.
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Almonds
Sangi, inshell
FOB 1.75 €/kg
(from IR)
Almond kernels
Mamra, grade a
FOB 11.17 €/kg
(from IR)
Almonds kernels
carmel, ssr, 18/20
FAS 6.87 €/kg
(from US)
📊 Current Market Prices
| Type | Price ($/lb) | Previous Price ($/lb) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| ST5% | 3.22 | 3.20 | +0.62% |
| Carmel, SSR 18/20 | 6.87 | 6.85 | +0.29% |
| Marcona, S/16 | 9.07 | 9.05 | +0.22% |
🌍 Market Drivers
- US tariffs and potential EU duties creating cost uncertainties.
- Tight quality spreads pushing up prices for near-term deliveries.
- Significant crop size forecasted for 2025, influencing long-term strategies.
⛅ Weather Outlook – Key Growing Regions
The weather forecast indicates mild and stable conditions across major almond-growing areas in the US and Spain, which should support the ongoing harvesting activities without major disruptions.
🔮 Price Forecast – Next 3 Days
Given the stable supply outlook and ongoing geopolitical tensions, prices are expected to remain firm with slight fluctuations depending on trade developments and market sentiment.
