Wheat Trade in the European Union (2021–2025)
1. Overview
The wheat market in the European Union (EU) has experienced significant fluctuations since 2021, influenced by climate conditions, geopolitical events, and shifting trade dynamics. This report provides a detailed overview of wheat production, consumption, stock levels, and import/export trends in the EU over the past five years.
2. Wheat Production in the EU
Wheat production in the EU has varied significantly due to weather conditions and external factors.
| Year | Production (Million Tons) | Change (Million Tons) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 138.1 | — | — |
| 2022 | 134.9 | -3.2 | -2.32 |
| 2023 | 133.1 | -1.8 | -1.33 |
| 2024 | 120.3 | -12.8 | -9.62 |
| 2025* | Forecast | — | — |
🔹 Key Drivers:
- 2022–2023: Decline due to unfavourable weather conditions.
- 2024: Significant drop due to excessive rainfall in France and Germany.
- 2025: Forecasts suggest a slight recovery.
3. Wheat Consumption in the EU
Total wheat consumption in the EU has remained relatively stable, with food, feed, and industrial use as the main demand sources.
| Year | Total Consumption (Million Tons) | Human Consumption (Million Tons) | Feed & Industrial Use (Million Tons) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 255.0 | 58.5 | 196.5 | — |
| 2022 | 256.5 | 58.8 | 197.7 | +0.59 |
| 2023 | 258.0 | 59.0 | 199.0 | +0.58 |
| 2024 | 257.1 | 59.3 | 197.8 | -0.35 |
| 2025* | Forecast | — | — | — |
🔹 Key Trends:
- Human consumption is increasing slightly.
- Feed & industrial use remains stable, with minor fluctuations.
- 2024: Slight reduction in overall consumption, primarily in industrial use.
4. Wheat Stock Levels in the EU
Wheat stocks in the EU have been declining since 2021, raising supply concerns.
| Year | Stock Levels (Million Tons) | Change (Million Tons) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 20.5 | — | — |
| 2022 | 18.9 | -1.6 | -7.8 |
| 2023 | 17.0 | -1.9 | -10.1 |
| 2024 | 9.4 | -7.6 | -44.7 |
| 2025* | Forecast | — | — |
🔹 Critical Developments:
- Stock levels have dropped by over 50% since 2021.
- 2024: Sharp decline due to increased exports and lower production.
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5. Wheat Imports into the EU
Although the EU is traditionally not a major wheat importer, declining stock levels have led to increased imports.
| Year | Import Volume (Million Tons) | Key Suppliers |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 30.2 | Ukraine, Russia, Canada |
| 2022 | 28.9 | Ukraine, Russia, Canada |
| 2023 | 29.1 | Ukraine, USA, Argentina |
| 2024 | 28.1 | Ukraine, Brazil, Australia |
| 2025* | Forecast | — |
🔹 Notable Developments:
- Ukraine has become the primary supplier since 2022.
- 2024: Increased imports from Brazil and Australia due to logistical issues in Ukraine.
6. Wheat Exports from the EU
The EU remains a significant wheat exporter, particularly to Africa and Asia.
| Year | Export Volume (Million Tons) | Main Destinations |
|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 45.3 | Egypt, Algeria, China |
| 2022 | 46.5 | Egypt, Algeria, Nigeria |
| 2023 | 47.2 | Egypt, Morocco, Indonesia |
| 2024 | 48.2 | China, Turkey, Nigeria |
| 2025* | Forecast | — |
🔹 Export Trends:
- Continuous increase in exports since 2021.
- 2024: More wheat exported to China and Turkey despite reduced production.
7. Conclusion & Outlook
The wheat supply situation in the EU remains volatile. Key takeaways include:
- Production: Significant declines in recent years, with a slight recovery expected in 2025.
- Consumption: Steady demand with minor fluctuations in feed and industrial use.
- Stock Levels: Sharp decline, leading to potential supply concerns.
- Trade: Exports remain high, while imports diversify with new suppliers.
For 2025, the market will largely depend on production conditions and geopolitical developments. A recovery in production could stabilize the situation, while further stock declines could lead to supply constraints.
Source: Based on current market analysis and trade statistics.