🌽 Corn Market Continues to Decline Amid Trade War and Strong South American Crops 📉
The corn market remains under pressure as U.S.-China trade tensions escalate, triggering a sell-off in CBOT futures. The May contract hit its lowest level since December 20, while Euronext corn dropped to its weakest price since early December. Improved weather conditions in South America and speculators unwinding long positions further weighed on prices. How will global trade policies, export demand, and South American crops shape the market in the coming days? Find out in today’s market report! 🚀📊
📊 Market Overview
🔹 CBoT: The May contract dropped 4.75 ct to 451.5 ct/bu, marking its lowest close since December 20.
🔹 Euronext: The June contract lost 3 EUR to 211 EUR/t, the lowest level since early December.
🌍 Key Market Drivers
📌 1. U.S. Trade War Intensifies – Retaliatory Tariffs Weigh on Markets
- U.S. President Trump confirmed on Monday that higher tariffs on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico would take effect today.
- China responded with new tariffs, including:
- 10–15% duties on several U.S. agricultural and food products.
- Export and investment restrictions on 25 U.S. companies.
- Mexico, the top U.S. corn importer, will announce countermeasures on Sunday, adding more uncertainty.
- Canada has already responded with 25% tariffs on U.S. imports worth over $20 billion.
- Market impact: The threat of trade restrictions caused hedge funds to further reduce their net-long positions, triggering additional price declines.
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📌 2. South American Crop Conditions Improve
- Argentina:
- Last week’s rains significantly improved soil moisture, reducing fears of severe yield losses.
- Brazil:
- The soybean harvest is now outpacing last year’s progress, allowing a smoother transition to second-crop (Safrinha) corn planting.
- Even though the ideal planting window has closed, rapid sowing is still crucial to benefit from the last seasonal rains.
📌 3. Hedge Funds Unwinding Long Positions
- The CFTC report indicated that speculative traders continued to exit long positions, exacerbating the market selloff.
📌 4. USDA Grain Crushing Report – Ethanol Demand Trends
- January corn usage for ethanol: 457 million bushels, down 4.6% from December, but 3.7% higher YoY.
- Marketing-year total (so far): 2.322 billion bushels, up 2.2% from last year.
- Market impact: Weak ethanol demand and high stock levels added further downside pressure.
📌 5. U.S. Export Sales & Inspections
- USDA Weekly Export Inspections Report (Feb 27):
- Total corn shipments: 1.351 million tons, near the upper end of expectations (950,000 – 1.4 million tons).
- 15.9% higher than last week and 17.9% above the same week last year.
- YTD U.S. corn exports: 27.257 million tons (+31.7% YoY).
📉 CBoT Corn Futures (US-Cent/bu)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 436.00 | 436.75 | 442.00 | 436.75 | 439.25 | +3.25 | +0.75% |
| May 25 | 451.50 | 454.50 | 458.50 | 453.00 | 457.50 | +6.00 | +1.33% |
| Jul 25 | 459.25 | 462.00 | 465.75 | 460.25 | 464.75 | +5.50 | +1.20% |
| Sep 25 | 441.00 | 442.25 | 445.00 | 440.25 | 443.75 | +2.75 | +0.62% |
| Dec 25 | 446.75 | 448.00 | 450.00 | 446.00 | 448.75 | +2.00 | +0.45% |
📊 Euronext Corn Futures (EUR/t)
| Contract | Prev. Close | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 | 181.75 | – | – | – | 181.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Jun 25 | 211.00 | – | – | – | 211.00 | -3.00 | -1.40% |
| Aug 25 | 216.25 | – | – | – | 216.25 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
| Nov 25 | 212.75 | – | – | – | 212.75 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
🔮 3-Day Price Forecast
| Market | Expected Trend | Key Factors |
|---|---|---|
| CBoT Corn | 🔽 Bearish | Trade war tensions, improving South American crop outlook |
| Euronext Corn | 🔄 Neutral to Slightly Bearish | Currency effects, U.S. price influence |
| Argentina & Brazil | 🔼 Volatile | Rain in Argentina, fast planting in Brazil |
🌦 14-Day Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
🇦🇷 Argentina (Corn Belt)
📍 Current Conditions: Rainfall has improved soil moisture.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 More rain expected in key corn regions, boosting yield potential.
- 🌡 High temperatures persist, slowing late-stage crop development.
🇧🇷 Brazil (Second Corn Crop Areas)
📍 Current Conditions: Fast soybean harvest supports corn planting progress.
📆 Next 14 Days:
- 🌧 Rainfall could delay final corn plantings.
- 🌤 Drier conditions in some regions could improve planting efforts.
📉 Global Corn Production & Stocks
| Season | Global Stocks (Mio. t) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| 2021/22 | 311.5 | – |
| 2022/23 | 301.0 | -10.5 Mio. t |
| 2023/24 | 295.8 | -5.2 Mio. t |
| 2024/25 | 290.3 | -5.5 Mio. t |
📉 Since January 2025, global corn stocks have dropped by 25.5 million tons!
🌾 Corn Production – 3-Year Comparison
| Country | 2022/23 (Mio. t) | 2023/24 (Mio. t) | 2024/25 Forecast (Mio. t) | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🇺🇸 USA | 382 | 385 | 390 | +1.3% |
| 🇨🇳 China | 283 | 290 | 292 | +0.7% |
| 🇧🇷 Brazil | 125 | 135 | 137 | +1.5% |
| 🇦🇷 Argentina | 51 | 49 | 46 | -6.1% |
📊 Summary: Brazil is continuing steady growth, while Argentina faces drought-related losses.
📌 Summary & Market Outlook
📊 U.S.-China trade war escalates, weighing heavily on U.S. corn prices.
🌎 South American weather improves, reducing risk premiums.
📉 Weak export demand and hedge fund liquidation keep futures under pressure.
🔍 Corn futures likely to stay under pressure as trade concerns mount.
📢 Stay tuned for further updates on trade policies & South American crop conditions! 🚀