Turkish Hazelnut Market – TMO Surprise Auction Stirs Market, Buyers Hold Back Despite Price Drop

Turkish Hazelnut Market – TMO Surprise Auction Stirs Market, Buyers Hold Back Despite Price Drop

📆 Report Date: June 22, 2025 | Report No. 2025-23

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📊 Market Snapshot (Week 25)

Product	Price (€/kg, DDP Central Europe)	Weekly Δ
Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (Organic)	€9.11	-€0.50
Raw Kernels 11–13 mm (Conventional)	€10.52	-€0.53
Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm	€12.03	+€0.03
Roasted Kernels 2–4 mm	€8.10	-€0.36
Roasted Kernels 0–2 mm	€7.52	-€0.04
Hazelnut Paste (medium)	€7.58	+€0.31

📉 1-Week Market Trend: -4.88%
📈 12-Month Performance: +19.94%
📈 3-Year Trend: +41.99%
📉 10-Year Trend: -34.15%

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📌 Key Market Developments

🔥 TMO Launches Unexpected Auction

• TMO released ~10,000 mt of 2022 crop via auction at 150–152 TRY/kg—a +25% jump over last sale levels.
• Highest bids reached 152 TRY/kg, but allocation results are still pending.
• If awarded, older crop volumes will re-enter the market, likely increasing the availability of blended stock.

🧊 Low Trade Volume & Buyer Reluctance

• Export demand remains weak.
• 2025 crop offers are too expensive for buyers, resulting in near-zero forward contracting.
• Many buyers prefer to cover residual 2024 stocks, hoping for better entry points.

💱 FX & Monetary Policy Stable

• Turkish Central Bank held interest rates at 46%, keeping the Lira relatively stable.
• Current TRY/EUR exchange rate: ~46.1

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📈 Bullish Market Indicators

• Revised crop estimates expected to be lower → speculative pressure may increase.
• The remaining TMO inventory (~20,000 mt) will likely be rationed in future auctions.
• Quality issues persist → Good natural kernels are expected to command a premium.
• Turkish farmers are still holding raw stock, expecting better prices.
• Cost inflation (minimum wage, energy, pest control) pressures continue.
• Stinkbug damage (hollow kernels) is not yet fully priced in.
• No relief from alternative origins (Italy, Georgia, Azerbaijan).

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📉 Bearish Market Indicators

• Market leader claims to be fully covered, reducing bulk demand.
• High financing costs reduce the incentive to hold speculative positions.
• The price ceiling for Chinese buyers is likely reached.
• Demand from the chocolate industry remains uncertain, with lower tender volumes.
• Old stock from TMO (2022 harvest) is still distorting small kernel prices.
• Intense exporter competition + oversupply of small calibres + low-grade paste.

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🔮 Outlook & Strategic Takeaways

Product	Forecast Range (€/kg)
Raw Kernels 11–13 mm	€10.30 – €10.70
Roasted Kernels 11–13 mm	€11.90 – €12.20
Hazelnut Paste	€7.40 – €7.65

📌 June–July Watchpoints:

• July orchard inspections + revised crop estimates to clarify the supply picture.
• Post-auction TMO action may either stabilise or further fragment the market.
• Pest pressure (e.g., stinkbug) could be a key price driver.

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📊 Export Trends

• 2024/25 exports projected at ~320,000 MT.
• Export activity remains below long-term potential, despite high prices.
• Current offers are highly fragmented by grade, crop year, and processor.

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📢 Strategic Advice for Buyers:

• Be selective; avoid blended offers from old stock unless clearly labelled.
• Monitor TMO allocation results next week to assess real inventory movement.
• Consider early booking of quality kernels, especially for Q4 delivery.

📤 For Sellers:

• Price lists must clearly distinguish 2022/2023/2024 origins.
• Prepare for a two-tier market: natural kernels vs. processed goods under pressure.

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🎯 Why this format?
✔ Transparent, weekly price trends
✔ Integrated FX, macro, crop, and trade data
✔ Actionable insights for procurement and strategy teams

📅 Next Key Milestone: July crop estimate & stinkbug survey results. Let us know if you want tailored tracking for your supply strategy.