OCTOBER SHIPMENTS: The October 2021 Walnut shipments were +73,962 tons in 2021 versus 103,816 tons in September 2020 on an inshell equivalent for a decrease of -28.75 percent
SEASON TO DATE SHIPMENTS: The industry has shipped a total 107,750 tons for 2021 crop, compared to 132,810 tons at this point for 2020 crop. This is a decrease of -18.89%.
CROP: Receipts recorded as of October 31, 2021 are +564,714 tons. The NASS estimate for the 2021 walnut crop is 680,000 tons.
DOMESTIC/ USA: October 2021 shipments versus 2020 shipments on an inshell equivalent were down -11.46%
EXPORT: October 2021 shipments versus 2020 shipments on an inshell equivalent were down -35.33%
Key Markets-October 2021 vs. October 2020
Turkey: 13.8 million inshell lbs. shipped in 2021 versus 25.98 shipped in 2020, decrease of -46.89%
UAE: 2.51 million inshell lbs. shipped in 2021 versus 11.15 shipped in 2020, decrease of -77.5%
Japan: 2.76 million kernel lbs. shipped in 2021 versus 960,147in 2020, increase of 187.39%
Middle East/Africa: 17.15 million inshell lbs. shipped in 2021 versus 45.18 million in 2020, decrease of -62.04%
Europe: 11.96 million kernel lbs. shipped in 2021 versus 13.42 in 2020, decrease of -10.86%
Harvest/Storm: Chandler harvest started with ideal conditions throughout the state, increased edible yields and light percentage were reported in all regions. However, on October 24 the northern areas of the state withstood the most substantial storm in the last 100 years. Sacramento received a total of 5.44 inches of rain, which beat the previous record of 5.28 inches set in 1880, and wind gusts were reported at 50 mph. This storm occurred with approximately 25-30% of the Chandler crop still on the tree’s, the wind blowing a substantial amount off the tree’s and into the mud where they sat for up to a week while the orchard dried enough to allow machines back to harvest. As a result of this storm, much of the late harvest chandler crop has stained/dirty shells and damaged kernels. Late harvest Chandler that was planned on being packed inshell must now be cracked. On a positive note, over 2/3rds of the crop was already harvested when the rain event occurred and we now have some snowpack in the mountains!
MARKET/ PRICING: Not much of a surprise for shipment in October. Suppliers will point to the current shipping issues facing the industry, which undoubtedly negatively affected shipments. If there are no containers or vessel space available, then walnuts simply cannot ship. However, this would ignore the fact that USA shipments were also down over 10%. Another contributing factor would be poor sales for the entire month of September, spurred by a price increase at the beginning of the month with little demand. Prices have since decreased to levels well below where they were in August, but with the inability to consistently ship, demand has been slow to respond.
Buyers should note that because of the substantial storm on October 24, there will be less premium quality inshell available than previously estimated. Inshell prices will reflect the limited supply, with sellers unwilling to accept lower prices. If you do need high-quality inshell, we suggest you act quickly as we do not expect much to be available past December.
Source: Summit Premium Tree Nuts