This week was again characterised by subdued export and domestic demand. However, business is taking place at the value-added stages before that. Most farmers have already disposed of their stock, fearing the progressive development of mould; they fear that the sale of the goods may be significantly reduced later on. Therefore few farmers are still holding on to their stocks. But also between the crackers and the exporters, business is picking up again.
Some exporters are now in the process of building up their stocks. They are currently building up their stocks, as they expect the TMO to announce its selling price at the end of February. And rumour has it that this will be significantly higher than the current market price.
The market is also expecting the market leader to buy another tranche of 30,000 mt (inshell). For this reason, the Cracker’s price for natural 11-13 mm has risen this week from about 67.50 TRY/kg to 69.50 TRY/kg. However, this has not yet had an impact on the exporters’ price lists, especially as the price increase only started towards the weekend. Overall, we saw prices fall again this week compared to prices this week compared to the previous week, even though the Turkish lira was able to gain against the euro.
The coming week will therefore be exciting. On the one hand, we will see whether the higher commodity prices can already be implemented. The central bank’s monetary policy committee meets again on Thursday. Most market participants expect interest rates to remain stable. An indication of this is also the announcement of economic aid for industry. The latter is now to receive loans in TRY for an interest rate of approx. 14 – 15% p.a. The president is also calling on his citizens to sell their private gold jewellery so that it can be melted down.
Gold jewellery can be melted down to support the national currency. The national currency. In addition, VAT on basic foodstuffs is reduced from 8% to 1%. It is, therefore, to be expected that further steps that fuel inflation will be avoided for the time being. However, since the central bank’s course is quite unorthodox, there may be a surprise again. Therefore, one should keep a close eye on the market next week. The exporters are, in any case preparing for higher commodity prices in the coming months.
After several quiet weeks, the market seems to be getting active again. In any case, exporters are now positioning themselves for the second half of the season. The industry in Europe, on the other hand, is not yet.
On the other hand, the industry in Europe is not yet ready to make decisions, as almost no one wants to make speculative purchases.
- Export and domestic demand are still very subdued.
- Exporters are now building up their positions for the second half of the season.
- Commodity prices increased towards the weekend due to rumours of a possible sale price
of the TMO, as well as exporters’ buying. (67.5 69.5 TRY/kg). Before that, prices continued to
decline. - Turkish lira stable or with a slight plus in the course of the week.
- The Central Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets again on 17 February.