In line with expectations, this trading week was quiet again in the Turkish hazelnut market. The market continues to thrive on individual trades, as buyers continue to opt only for the short-term cover. The speculations about the Turkish hazelnut crop 2023 are rising.
Commodity prices have remained stable, but competition among suppliers and low sales are still putting some pressure on prices, so we have seen one or two attractive offers for export in the market this week. Currently, we are seeing very different behaviour from exporters. Some are trying to push the market down further. Others are currently holding back and hoping for rising prices. This is also evident in the published forecasts for the coming harvest. At the moment there are figures of 650,000 – 850,000 mt floating around in the market, depending on whom you talk to.
Concerning the 2023 harvest, we are also hearing about individual contracts for processed goods that are significantly below the current level. We are therefore back at a point where the market is characterised by speculative behaviour on the part of exporters at a time when the covering is practically impossible for sellers. As already mentioned, this first flower count is only an indication. Reliable statements cannot yet be made.
Turkish lira recovered
Concerning the exchange rate development, the only thing to note is that the euro lost some value against the US dollar in the course of the week, but recovered towards the end of the week. This had a corresponding effect on the exchange rate against the Turkish lira, which remained more or less stable. On the export price lists, the development of the foreign exchange markets had only a marginal influence this week.
Concerning the weather on the Black Sea coast, there are no special events to report.
We do not expect the situation to change significantly in the coming weeks. The exporters will now restock the goods purchased by the TMO and, based on this, put their offers on the market. These may be so attractive that one or the other deal will be concluded, especially since we assume that the raw material prices have now probably reached the lower limit.
Bullet points
- Lack of export demand and competitive pressure lead to declining export prices with constant commodity price development and stable exchange rate.
- Communication of very different results of the first flower count. (depending on the source, 650,000 – 850,000 mt are reported).
- Weather situation on the Black Sea coast is currently uncritical.
- The Turkish lira remains relatively stable against the euro and the US dollar.