After a brief pause, jeera (cumin seed) prices are climbing again amid adverse weather conditions in the largest growing region, Rajasthan, and parts of Gujarat.
The Cumin growing regions in southern and north-western parts of Rajasthan in the districts of Alwar, Jaisalmer, Jaipur, Bikaner, Bhilwara, and Barmer have received a fresh spell of unseasonal rains in the past week, triggering concerns on the crop condition.
On the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX), Cumin futures for April expiry quoted as high as $4,44, whereas the far-month NCDEX May contract for Cumin quoted above $4,46 per kg amid the fresh worry over the crop status.
The prices have gained by about 45 percent since December 2022, from $3,05 a kg. In the spot markets at Unjha in north Gujarat, Cumin prices quoted at $4,30 per kg with arrivals hovering at 22,000-25,000 bags.
Jayantibhai Patel, a Cumin trader from Unjha, said, “The impact of the unseasonal rains will be felt mainly in Rajasthan, where the crop is still in fields or at the harvest stage. There is a possibility of crop damage to the tune of 15-20 percent in Rajasthan. Whereas in Gujarat, we don’t expect a big dent in the crop. But the quality has suffered and that is triggering the upward price sentiment.”
For the Cumin crop, moist or cloudy weather impacts the quality of the seed, which often turns blackish, indicating spoilage.
Crop estimate
In February this year, the Federation of Indian Spice Stakeholders (FISS) had released a crop estimate for seed spices, projecting the Cumin crop for 2022-23 at 3.84 million tonnes (69.96 million bags of 55 kg each), up 28 percent from last year’s 3.01 million tonnes.
FISS recorded an increase in acreage by 12.9 percent in Gujarat and Rajasthan, while yields are expected to be higher by about 13.2 percent over last year.
The cumin crop in Gujarat was estimated to be higher by 22 percent at 1.41 million tonnes while Rajasthan crop was projected higher by 32 percent at 2.43 million tonnes.
However, for traders, the lower stock positions and weather impact on the crop are sufficient to go bullish on the price.
Market sources have estimated the Cumin crop at 60-65 million bags with a carryover stock of about 5 million bags. The prices, according to traders, may gain further upside momentum as export demand from China and other countries has been slack in recent weeks.
Notably, Lok Sabha speaker Om Birla, who is also a member of Parliament from Rajasthan, had reportedly expressed concern over the crop damage due to unseasonal rains in the State.
Source: The Hindu Business line