The global wheat market remains under pressure from the significant supply, but traders are increasingly concerned about production forecasts in the new season. Against the background of the expected decrease in the harvest in Ukraine and the Russian Federation, experts are monitoring the state of crops and production estimates in the United States and the EU, which are the world’s main exporters of wheat, and will determine the dynamics of world prices next season.
Yesterday, NASS USDA released its first weekly crop status report and harvest forecast for 2023 Almost 28% of winter wheat crops in the United States are in good or excellent condition, compared to 30% last year. The drought that has prevailed since August in the Southern Plains continues to worsen harvest prospects.
In Kansas, only 16% of winter wheat crops are in good or excellent condition, and 57% are in poor and very poor condition, 18% and 47%, respectively, in Colorado, 27% and 33%, in Oklahoma 26% and 40%, and these states are its main producers.
The European Commission has published the first forecasts of production in the EU in 2023/24 MY. It is expected that in comparison with the previous season, soft wheat production will increase from 126 to 130.9 million tons, domestic consumption – from 98.8 to 99.1 million tons, ending stocks – from 18.1 to 21.9 million tons, and exports will remain at the level of 32 million tons.
According to FranceAgriMer, as of March 27, 94% of soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition in France, which corresponds to last week’s level and exceeds last year’s 92%. At the same time, the number of durum crops in good or excellent condition for the week decreased from 92% to 91%, which is still higher than last year’s 87%.
May futures on major exchanges fell:
- by 0.2% to.253.4 / ton – for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (-2.2% per week),
- by 0.3% to.320.6 / ton – for hard winter HRW wheat in Kansas City,
- by 0.2% to.326.8/ton – for hard spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+1.3% per week),
- by 0.4% to €255.25/ton or € 288.6/ton for wheat on Paris Euronext.
Unchanged at 279,58 $/t remained may futures for Black Sea wheat in Chicago.
Source: Graintrade