In March 2023, Ukraine sent by “Grain corridor” a record number of vessels to China — 25. There were 1.2 million tons of food on board.
For comparison: since the beginning of 2023, 9.6 million tons of cargo were sent by sea, of which 3.1 million tons went to China.
During the “grain agreement” China became the main buyer of Ukrainian grain.
They accepted almost a third of the total 26 million tons of cargo transported through the sea corridor. Most of these volumes are corn.
The current volume of grain supply is almost the highest in the history of Ukrainian-Chinese agricultural trade and will probably surpass the record of 2021. At that time, China bought 28 million tons of corn on world markets, about 7 million tons of which came from Ukraine.
From October 2022 to February 2023, corn imports into China amounted to 9.2 million tons, of which almost 4 million tons were of Ukrainian origin. According to this indicator, Ukraine for the first time overtook the USA, which previously held the first place.
Ukrainian grain, which goes to the Middle East, is traded at a significant discount due to war risks. May futures for corn on the Chicago exchange are trading at $249/t. And purchase prices in Ukraine in March were $200-205/t with delivery to Black Sea ports.
Despite extremely low prices for Ukrainian food and the fact that the main beneficiary of the “grain agreement” was China, there are very few options for Ukraine.
First of all, the corridor remains key for food exports. It accounts for about 60% of sales of Ukrainian goods abroad. Up to 1 million tons of cargo per month go through the Danube ports. The rest are delivered by rail and road transport. Secondly, the Russians are constantly sabotaging the work of the grain corridor.
However, the analysis shows that these delays did not significantly affect the volume of exports. It has been stable and even slightly rising since November 2022. Supplies to China play a key role in increasing the average load.