In the May report, USDA analysts announced the first forecasts of global wheat production in 2023/24 MY, expecting a harvest of 789.7 mln tonnes, slightly higher than in 2022/23 MY (788.2 mln tonnes) and the highest in the last 5 seasons.
Global Wheat Production
Thus, in the next season, experts forecast the increase of wheat production in China – up to 140 mln tonnes against 137.7 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY, in the EU – up to 139 (134.3) mln tonnes, India – to 110 (104) mln tonnes, Canada – to 37 (33.8) mln tonnes, Argentina – to 19.5 (12.5) mln tonnes, Türkiye- to 19 (17.2) mln tonnes, Iran – to 14.5 (13.2) mln tonnes and the USA – to 45.1 (44.9) mln tonnes.
At the same time, the wheat harvest is expected to decline in Russia – to 81.5 (92) million tons, Australia – to 29 (39) million tons, Ukraine – to 16.5 (20.9) million tons, Kazakhstan – to 14 (16.4) million tons, Brazil – to 10 (10.4) million tons, and Egypt – to 8.6 (9.3) million tons.
Global Wheat Exports
The analysts forecast the global wheat exports in 2023/24 MY at 212.5 mln tonnes, down slightly from 212.9 mln tonnes in 2022/23 MY. Thus, the experts expect the exports to decrease from Australia – to 24.5 (32.5) mln tonnes, Ukraine – to 10 (15) mln tonnes, Kazakhstan – to 9.5 (10) mln tonnes and the USA – to 20 (21.5) mln tonnes.
In turn, the Russian Federation may increase its grain exports to 45.5 (44.5) million tons, the EU to 38 (34.5) million tons, Canada to 27.5 (26) million tons, Argentina to 12.5 (5) million tons, Türkiye to 7.5 (7) million tons, and Brazil to 3.5 (3) million tons.
It is also worth noting that the world wheat stocks in the next season, according to experts, may decrease to 264.3 mln tonnes compared to 266.3 mln tonnes in the current marketing year. The reduction of the ending stocks is expected in the EU – to 14.6 (16.1) mln tonnes, Russia – to 12.9 (17.6) mln tonnes, Algeria – to 4.6 (4.9) mln tonnes and the USA – to 15.1 (16.3) mln tonnes. At the same time, China’s wheat stocks may increase to 139.7 (139.1) million tons, India – to 11.5 (9.5) million tons, and Saudi Arabia – to 3.7 (3) million tons.
Import/Export Statistics
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