The cumin market is undergoing a whirlwind of changes, like a rollercoaster ride. Syria is wrapping up its cumin harvest while Afghanistan is gearing up for a bumper crop. As a result, Afghanistan’s cumin exports will hit the brakes for the next three months. But hold your horses! Turkish-Syrian farmers, smelling success, have turned up the heat on cumin cultivation after a dry spell. The stars seem aligned, and Syria predicts a bountiful harvest of 35 to 40 thousand tonnes.
Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, the fields are abuzz with activity. The increased cultivation is like a shot in the arm, expected to yield 25 thousand tonnes. Already, 30% of the crop has flooded the market, and shipments are on the move. The remaining 70% is just around the corner, ready to take the market by storm.
India, a significant player in the cumin game, is holding its ground with prices ranging from $5,700 to $5,800 per tonne. Türkiye, Iran, Pakistan, and China are all vying for a piece of the cumin pie. China, in particular, expects a massive harvest of 30,000 tonnes. However, China might cool its purchasing spree with abundant local cumin, meeting 30,000 tonnes of its annual 70-80 thousand-tonne appetite.
Demand for cumin during the Bakrid festivities has hit the brakes in Bangladesh, Gulf countries, and Pakistan due to the surplus supply from Syria. This unexpected turn has prompted a change in trade patterns, with Bangladesh and Pakistan shifting their gaze towards Afghanistan-Syria for cumin imports. With China’s new crop on the horizon and shipments from Afghanistan-Syria revving, the stage is set for a dramatic shift in the cumin market.
Therefore, Indian cumin exports may take a temporary siesta for the next two months, but they’re predicted to bounce back in July with a vengeance.