The cumin market faces challenges due to various global factors, including the rise in cumin prices in China and the influx of cumin imports from Syria. While there is a perception of rising costs in the domestic market, the reality is quite different. Chinese cumin is being sold at significantly lower prices than Indian cumin, causing a shift in demand and leading to a decline in the export market. The oversupply of cumin from China, with its doubled crop yield, has created a situation where Indian importers are diverting their supplies to the domestic market.
Heavy rainfall and a decrease in arrivals
The current boom in cumin prices can be attributed to the decrease in arrivals caused by heavy rainfall in Gujarat and Rajasthan. Farmers, preoccupied with farming activities, need help to bring their produce to the market. However, it is expected that after the rains subside, cumin arrivals will increase, which may impact the market dynamics. The export demand for Indian cumin is expected to remain alive for the next one and a half to two months due to the competitive pricing offered by China. However, relying solely on the domestic market may not lead to a new surge in cumin prices. The imposition of import duties and the need to export cumin imported from Syria and China pose challenges to the export market.
The current scenario suggests that the cumin market may experience a minor rise in the next one and a half to two months. Global competition, oversupply, and shifting export demands influence market dynamics. The availability of cumin stock in India and the need to book profits may result in heavy selling. With the current state of the market, the focus is on strategic selling and monitoring global market trends. The empty domestic pipeline and potential demand for cumin seeds in the future indicate that cumin prices may continue to rise until September-October. However, a significant increase is unlikely in the next one and a half to two months.