Prairies of Canada received rain last week. This brought temperatures back to normal and stressed rapeseed crops. No significant rainfall is in the forecast for this week, particularly in Saskatchewan, which is the cause of the speculative price rises according to Graintrade.
As of the 10th of July, 84% of the rapeseed crop in Saskatchewan was in fair or good condition and 45% in good or excellent condition in Alberta (compared to 66% for the 5-year average).
Winnipeg November rapeseed futures rose 0.5% yesterday to CAD 834/t or $632/t (+5.8% for the week, +16% for the month).
In the US, the number of soybeans in good or excellent condition for the week rose 4% to 55% (61% last year). However, on forecasts of dry weather, Chicago November soybean futures rose 1.2% yesterday to $512.6/t (+3.9% for the month). Traders are speculative buyers of new crop, so prices for it will soon be in line with old crop, although the increase will limit the fall in oil prices somewhat.
On the Paris exchange, August rapeseed futures rose 1.6% yesterday to €477.25/t or $535.6/t (+3.2% for the week, +1.7% for the month) on the back of delayed harvest due to rain and increased demand from the biodiesel industry.
In Ukraine, purchase prices for rapeseed rose by a further $15-20/t since Monday to $370-375/t or UAH 14,500-15,500/t for delivery to Black Sea and Danube ports, against a background of rising world prices and delays in product delivery during the period of active shipments from Danube ports.
Traders are using the Black Sea ports to stock up with subsequent road transport to the Danube ports and transshipment to large tonnage vessels at the port of Constanta, which doubles the logistics costs for delivery to the EU, up to $100-120/t.
Demand for rapeseed in the EU remains low, with buyers offering €425-430/t on DAP Germany for October-November deliveries only.
Source: Graintrade