Less demand with limited supply
The cumin market is currently facing slow export and domestic demand, coupled with limited supply due to the rainy environment. Traditionally, cumin experiences good demand from Janmashtami to Diwali after good rains. This year’s domestic demand is also expected to follow suit. However, the rising domestic demand raises questions about supply management.
Export demand for cumin is currently nonexistent, with a 50% default in import deals from Syria. In contrast, China successfully made a 250 to 300 container import deal, with no news of defaults. The international market reflects varying cumin prices, with Indian cumin priced at $7500 to $8000 per tonne for Dubai Middle-East countries and $8200 to $8500 for America Europe. In contrast, China offers cumin at $5600 to $6400 per tonne. China’s export dominance may hinder export opportunities for the next 2 to 3 months, leading to re-export trade of cumin imported from China.
Monsoon and heavy rains
As the monsoon affects cumin’s moisture content, the market has witnessed fluctuations and corrections. A 2 to 5% correction has occurred in cumin prices, with expectations of further healthy corrections. However, there are no signs of a massive boom or recession in the near future.
Due to heavy rains impacting cumin quality, there have been disruptions in the cumin business across Gujarat, Rajasthan, and other regions. Historical boom and profit booking have further influenced cumin’s price decrease. As the period of domestic demand approaches, the current high price may deter buyers from forwarding cumin. The new purchase is also limited due to the steep price surge.
China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics.
The cumin market presents a delicate balancing act, influenced by domestic demand, export prospects, and China’s presence. Importers need to tread carefully as the market continues to navigate through mixed signals and uncertain horizons.