Amidst the struggle for ample monsoon rains and crop scarcity, cardamom prices are taking centre stage at the Puttady auction centre in Kerala. The dry spell that plagued May and June has resulted in a cascade of heavy droppings and, consequently, a price surge.
In a post-Covid-19 landscape, the cardamom market is painting a reversed canvas. After plummeting to subsequent levels, spurred by pandemic-related challenges, cardamom is reclaiming its value through a speculative buying spree. This oscillating trend mirrors the cardamom market’s resilience. The blame rests on the delayed and deficient monsoon, particularly in Kerala’s Idukki region, renowned for cardamom cultivation. The absence of the expected May-June showers led to a parched landscape, triggering substantial droppings in plantations, thereby denting the overall production.
Erratic weather patterns
The usual 90-day maturation cycle for cardamom flowers faced disruption due to uncharacteristically erratic weather patterns. The first harvesting round concluded by July-end, while the next hinges upon favourable weather conditions. Climate shifts are reshaping nature’s rhythms. Climate experts suggest that climate change’s fingerprints are all over this market upheaval. El Nino’s strengthening influence might lead to rain scarcity from December 2023 to April 2024, further constraining crops and elevating prices.
June witnessed a disheartening 70% monsoon deficit in the growing tracts, while July saw a 25% shortage. As August progresses, the deficiency still looms at around 40%. These staggering numbers, especially during the peak flowering months of the South-West monsoon, are expected to reduce this season’s yield by 25-30%. The market’s future is intertwined with the vagaries of monsoon. If deficits persist, another round of reduced crop and escalated prices is inevitable. But a twist of fortune lies in August and September’s hands, with bountiful rains possibly stabilizing prices. Market insiders report speculative buying, primarily fueled by traders from Kerala, capitalizing on expectations of an impending price surge. The auction centre sees an average of 100 tonnes daily, highlighting the fervour surrounding this enigmatic spice.
Gulf markets and upcountry consumers are poised at the precipice of scarcity. A dearth of stocks and surging prices coincide with the festival season, challenging the trade and ushering a new chapter in cardamom’s ongoing saga.