The July 2023 Walnut shipments were +44,357 tons in 2023 versus 30,058 tons in July 2022 on an in-shell equivalent, for an increase of 32.3%. Walnut suppliers should be happy with July shipments, even though prices for July (and the entire 2022 crop) are at a loss for growers. With all the noise surrounding how Chinese walnuts are replacing CA walnuts in in-shell markets, Middle East/Africa are up 18% for the year to date!! Suppliers will undoubtedly ask for higher prices this coming year, as prices at 2022 and 2021 crop levels are not sustainable for even the near term.
The industry has shipped a total 730,488 tons for 2022 crop, compared to 654,604 tons at this point for 2021 crop. This is an increase of 11.4%.
CROP: The final crop receipts for 2022 crop are 747,870 tons. The NASS estimate for the 2022 walnut crop is 720,000 tons.
DOMESTIC/ USA: July 2023 shipments versus 2022 shipments on an inshell equivalent are up 37%
EXPORT: July 2023 shipments versus 2022 shipments on an in-shell equivalent were up 24.6%
Key Markets-Year to Date, 2022 CROP vs. 2021 CROP
| Türkiye | inshell down -2.12 % |
| UAE | inshell up 64.15% |
| Germany | kernels down -29.48% |
| Middle East/Africa | inshell up 18.05% |
| Europe | kernels down -16.05% |
| Total | Export Inshell down -4.44%,  Export kernels down –8.99% |
2023 Crop
While still early, the 2023 crop looks to be slightly larger than this past year. We expect the crop estimate to be released in around 4 weeks. There have been rumors of crop damage in China, combined with Chile having lower inventory levels than this time last year. While there has been limited concluded business on new crops at this point, CA suppliers are optimistic that the 2023 crop will bring better pricing to their growers, or at least back to a point where they can break even. While buyers have enjoyed extremely low prices for the past 2 seasons, the prices are simply not sustainable. Already 20,000 acres of walnuts have been removed for this coming crop, and we expect much more to be removed this coming season. Expectations are of a 100,000-ton crop reduction over the next few years which will undoubtedly improve pricing.
Source: Summit Premium Tree Nuts