The USDA’s August balance sheet changes were mostly focused on the US but were in line with analysts’ earlier estimates, so prices reacted to the new report by falling as US weather improved. On the Chicago exchange on Friday, September soybean futures fell 1.1% to $491.4/t (-8% for the month) and November futures fell 0.8% to $480.4/t (-1.6%).
Compared to the July report, the following changes were made to the new soybean balance sheet for the 2023/24 MR:
- The estimate of beginning stocks was raised by 0.2 to 103.1 (99.14) million tonnes as a result of the adjustment to the 2022/23 MY balance.
- The world production forecast was lowered by 2.52 to 402.79 (369.74) million tonnes, particularly for the USA – by 2.58 to 114.45 (116.38) million tonnes due to a decline in productivity from 3.46 to 3.42 (3.32) t/ha, while the analysts’ estimate was 3.447 t/ha.
- The estimate for world exports was lowered by 0.52 to 168.77 (168.95) million tonnes, particularly for the USA – by 0.68 to 49.67 (53.89) million tonnes.
- The forecast for world ending stocks was lowered by 1.58 to 119.4 million tonnes, slightly below analysts’ estimates of 120.04 million tonnes, but well above the stocks of the last three seasons – 102.9 million tonnes in 2022/23 MR, 99.7 million tonnes in 2021/22 FY, and 100.3 million tonnes in 2020/21 FY.
Source: Graintrade