The U.S. Department of Agriculture – USDA has lowered its estimate of global olive oil production amid the failure of olive harvests in most of the Mediterranean due to extreme dry weather. Now this indicator in 2022-2023 agricultural year (October-September) is expected at 2.49 million tons (previous forecast – 2.59 million tons), which is a quarter less than last season and the five-year average.
The USDA also adjusted its production forecast for the 2023-2024 crop year to 2.94 million tons from 3.25 million tons.
“World olive oil prices have exceeded $8.9 thousand per ton amid supply shortages, surpassing the previous record ($6.24 thousand in 1996), and show no preconditions for decline. In August, the average price was 2.3 times higher than a year earlier. Prices have been steadily growing since the extent of crop damage became obvious,” the survey says.
Olive oil consumption in the 2022-2023 agricultural year is forecast to decline or remain unchanged in all countries except Türkiye, where, despite record production, the government has imposed a ban on bulk olive oil exports to supply the domestic market and reduce pressure on prices.
Fears for next season’s production in the Mediterranean, where drought is again expected, are also contributing to the price increase. In 2023-2024 agricultural year prices will remain at high levels, especially if the harvest is again affected by unfavorable weather conditions, warns the U.S. Department of Agriculture.