Scientists say that the past few months have been the hottest on record, so 2023 could be the hottest year on record. The El Nino weather phenomenon negatively affects the weather in Australia and Brazil, and worsens the prospects for the future harvest, reports Graintrade
65% below normal rainfall in Australia
According to Australia’s National Bureau of Meteorology, rainfall in October was 65% below normal, the lowest for that month since 2002, and reduced crop yields. Across the country, except for Victoria, October rainfall was below normal, with Western Australia experiencing a record low. Therefore, the wheat harvest may decrease by 35% compared to last year to 26 million tons.
Some areas in Brazil received rain, others did not
Due to the influence of El Nino, the normal rainy season never started in the central part of Brazil, while the southern regions suffered from excessive rainfall, which worsened the outlook for the soybean harvest. In November, the weather will not change significantly: there will be light rains in the central and northern regions, and downpours will continue in the south, which will negatively affect crops. However, it is still difficult to assess possible crop losses.
Irregular rainfall in different parts of Brazil is slowing soybean planting, which could reduce production of second-crop corn, which will see acreage decline if optimal planting times are completed.
In Argentina, rains replenish moisture reserves ahead of soybean and corn planting. Rainfall will continue next week.
Situation in US plains
The front brought heavy rains to the Midwest and the US Plains, which will promote the development of winter crops. Warm weather next week will allow the soybean and corn harvest to be completed, and the development of the crops will be accelerated.
Rains arrived to Europe
Periodic rains have been falling for several weeks in Europe, reducing drought conditions in all regions. Higher than-normal temperatures favor the vegetation of winter wheat and rapeseed.
Heavy rains will fall in Ukraine and the southwest of the Russian Federation this and next week, which, against the background of higher-than-normal temperatures, will improve the condition of winter crops before winter.