Grain exports from Ukraine for January exceeded the same figure in 2023 by 22%. But the volume of deliveries to ports decreased in the second half of January.
Against the background of terrorist attacks on vessels in the Red Sea and the reorientation of logistics routes bypassing Africa, the cost of freight from Black Sea ports to China increased by 5-6 $/t. This improves the competitiveness of South American corn compared to Ukrainian corn.
China continues to buy corn actively, importing 14 million tons of grain during October-January, compared to 4.4 million tons during this period last year. In general, corn imports could reach 25 million tons in 2023/24 MY.
Meanwhile, freight rates from Odesa to EU ports decreased by 3-5 $/t and are:
- Spain (Mediterranean) – 35-37 $/t (30-35 thousand tons);
- Italy (east coast) – 33-35 $/t (30-35 thousand tons);
- Portugal – $36-39/t (30-35 thousand tons);
A decrease in freight rates and prices for Ukrainian corn could increase grain supplies to the EU. In 2023/24 as of January 18, EU countries imported only 9.86 million tons of the forecasted 23.5 million tons of corn.
A significant increase in the forecast for global corn production in the January USDA report led to a decline in prices to a three-year low. It increased pressure on purchase prices in Ukraine. Thus, prices for corn delivered to the Black Sea ports remained at the same level of 148-153 $/t or 135-141 €/t. However, the volume of offers from producers decreased significantly.
Import/Export Statistics
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