Russia’s wheat harvest for 2024 has been raised to 92.2 million tonnes, according to the latest revision of the forecast by Russian consultancy SovEcon. The expected increase of 900,000 tonnes is favourable for the development of winter wheat. According to Rosstat, Russia’s new wheat crop is expected to reach around 92.8 million tonnes in 2023.
Since the beginning of January, rainfall in the main winter growing areas has been twice normal. This has resulted in snow depths of 10 cm in the south, 30 cm in the central region and 50 cm in the Volga region. Due to the dense snow cover, the first major cold snap of the season had minimal impact on winter crops. Soil temperature at the tillering node of winter crops remained above critical levels in all major regions, even as air temperatures dropped to -30″C. Weather models predict temperatures 2-4″C above normal for the second half of January, with 20-25 mm of rain in most regions. These conditions continue to suggest good prospects for the next Russian wheat crop.
The improvement in weather conditions in recent months bodes well for the new crop. Barring any major weather anomalies, these favourable prospects for the Russian crop could start to put pressure on global prices towards the end of the first quarter of 2024, according to SovEcon.