Last Thursday, the US Department of Agriculture released its monthly harvest forecast report (WASDE report). On Friday, wheat made a strong start, especially MATIF,which fought the downward trend in the Russian price. Now the benchmark looks like $235/t or €217/t fob and they may not be able to stay at this value, especially if they want to continue exporting their large harvest. In addition, good conditions for wheat in Ukraine are not helping, according to the assessment of Tofio Catön, Director of Crop Products at the Spanish Agri-Food Cooperatives.
According to the latest SovEcon data, Russian wheat stocks (on-farm and off-farm; excluding small holdings) reached 36.5 Mt as of 1 January, up 1% on last year’s level. Stocks reached record highs. Off-farm sales totalled 14.7 Mt (4965) and on-farm sales 21.8 Mt (+1%). However, globally, we continue to lose 797.52 Mt of stocks in an environment of increasing demand.
Global wheat supply for the 2023/2024 season is 1,057 Mt. End-of-season stocks are estimated at 259.44 Mt (-11.77 mt less than 2022 and -0.59 mt less than January). Corn is on the decline, with funds in short positions near record highs and seemingly unable to find a more favourable path.CBOT corn has been down for six days.