Turmeric, a staple in Indian cuisine and a global export, is poised for further escalation. Traders and analysts foresee a unique interplay of factors propelling turmeric prices to new heights, revealing a narrative of scarcity, anticipation, and potential volatility.
Turmeric’s Upward Trajectory
Turmeric prices, witnessing an impressive 80% surge year-on-year, are anticipated to climb even higher. The primary catalyst is a substantial drop in crop production, plummeting by at least 20% due to a decline in sowing this season. Traders and analysts predict a continued price ascent, creating an intriguing scenario for stakeholders.
Analysts’ Insights and Anticipations
Experts shed light on the situation, emphasizing that lower acreage has triggered a price surge. The NCDEX reports a remarkable 70% surge in turmeric prices in 2023. Another market veteran attributes this surge to delayed sowing, erratic monsoons, and yield concerns, all against robust export demands.
Regional Perspectives Of Turmeric
Regionally, Maharashtra’s Sangli region stands out, witnessing a doubling of prices compared to the previous year. The proprietor of Varadlaxmi Trading Company highlights a 30% decrease in Maharashtra’s crop. Similar trends are observed in Tamil Nadu, where sowing is 10-15% lower, and in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, where the decrease ranges from 18-22%. Farmers opting for more profitable crops like oilseeds and cotton contribute to the diminished acreage.
Production Estimates and Current Realities
According to first advance estimates, turmeric production in 2024 is projected to decrease by 15.40%, totaling around 4.45 lakh tonnes. The reduced acreage, a consequence of farmers opting for alternative crops, is a pivotal factor influencing the current price support.
Future Prospects Of Turmeric
As the new crop arrives, signaling the beginning of arrivals in Nizamabad and Tamil Nadu, the market witnesses the challenges of high moisture content. Experts predict firm prices until April, with potential volatility after that. Comparisons are drawn to cumin (jeera), suggesting that turmeric’s trajectory could mimic the surge and successive sharp decline experienced by cumin.
Price Predictions Of Turmeric
Despite potential volatility, industry experts remain bullish on turmeric’s prospects. Price predictions hint at a significant surge, reaching $2,41 or €2,24 per kg. Anticipating shortages due to farmers holding back for sowing, stakeholders prepare for a scenario mirroring the surge in cumin prices.
Conclusion
The outlook for turmeric remains bullish despite an 80% year-on-year gain. Factors such as reduced crop production and robust export demand suggest further price escalation. Regional insights highlight significant price disparities, underscoring the impact of lower acreage and farmer choices. However, industry experts remain optimistic about turmeric’s prospects. The price predictions hint at a significant surge shortly.