Cumin Prices Soar Due to High Demand
Farmers and Stockists Hold Back in Anticipation of Rising Prices
Cumin prices have surged close to $3,72 per kg due to strong demand and slow supply. The price has increased by about 34 percent in the last month. Farmers and stockists are not selling their goods, expecting prices to rise further. The increasing export demand, coupled with slow arrivals in mandis, suggests cumin prices may continue to climb in the coming months. In Unjha, the largest cumin mandi, prices rose to $3,71 per kg, up from $2,76 per kg on April 16. This marks an increase of approximately $0,95 per kg in just one month. Despite this rise, prices are still around 33 percent lower than last year’s peak.
On August 9, 2023, cumin prices reached a record high of $7,46 per kg. Experts believe the decline in cumin prices has not yet ended, as current prices are 50 percent lower than the highest level. Farmers and stockists are eyeing last year’s levels, expecting similar market trends.
Strong Demand and Export Trends Keep Cumin Prices High
Supply Shortages and Farmer Strategies Influence Market
According to research reports, cumin futures prices remain bullish due to strong demand and supply shortages. Each month, arrivals decrease while fresh buying and export demand improve. In March, 68.8 thousand tonnes of cumin arrived in major mandis, but this fell to 44.68 thousand tonnes by April. A further decline is expected in May as farmers hold back their goods at current rates. However, total arrivals this year exceed last year’s, with about 26 thousand tonnes arriving by early May compared to 15.6 thousand tonnes last year. Cumin exports from India increased by 73 percent to 32.12 thousand tonnes in March, driven by high demand from China and Bangladesh. Stockists are holding back goods in anticipation of further price increases.
Supply may increase once farmers receive better returns on cultivation costs. Prices are expected to stabilize only after supply increases. For now, the uptrend in cumin will continue. During the last financial year, Chinese importers initially imported cumin from India at lower prices and later re-exported it at higher prices. Currently, there is very little stock left, and the domestic crop has also been damaged. As a result, imports from India are likely to start soon in significant quantities. Chinese buyers are closely monitoring the Indian market, adjusting their purchases according to price fluctuations.
Conclusion
Cumin prices have surged due to strong demand and limited supply, with prices increasing by 34 percent in the last month. Farmers and stockists are holding back their goods, anticipating further price rises. Export demand, particularly from China and Bangladesh, remains high, driving the bullish trend. Prices are expected to stabilize only after an increase in supply, but for now, the uptrend will likely continue.