Significant Increase in Global Exports
Global exports of rapeseed and canola surged by 40% to 2.92 million tons in April-May this year, compared to the same period in 2023. This increase was primarily driven by higher exports from Canada, which rose from 1.24 to 1.39 million tons, Australia, which increased from 0.85 to 1.32 million tons according to Oil World.
Rising Imports in China and the EU
During the same period, China boosted its rapeseed imports from 0.91 to 1.07 million tons, while EU countries saw an increase from 0.23 to 0.87 million tons.
Annual Export Trends
For the 2023/24 fiscal year, global rapeseed exports amounted to 15.41 million tons, down from 16.57 million tons in the previous fiscal year (July-May 2022/23). Notably, Canadian exports decreased from 7.37 to 5.96 million tons. In contrast, exports from Australia grew from 5.35 to 5.67 million tons, and Ukraine’s exports rose from 3.42 to 3.66 million tons.
Seasonal Import Fluctuations
In the current season, China’s rapeseed imports declined from 4.17 to 4.07 million tons compared to the previous season. The EU’s imports fell from 6.59 to 5.81 million tons, and Mexico’s imports decreased from 1.22 to 1.14 million tons. However, Japan increased its imports from 1.68 to 1.97 million tons.
Futures Market Reactions
On July 11, August rapeseed futures stabilized at 476.5 €/t or $572/t, reflecting a 1.4% increase for the month but losing the gains from the previous week. Despite this, forecasts of reduced harvests in Ukraine and eastern EU regions due to intense heat are expected to drive speculative price growth.
Canola Futures on the Winnipeg Exchange
On the Winnipeg exchange, November canola futures fell by 5.8% to CAD 622/t, or $456/t, since Monday. This price is consistent with two weeks ago but represents a 4.2% decline from last month. The decline is attributed to favorable weather conditions for crops and harvest forecasts, which predict a production level of 20 million tons, exceeding last year’s 19.5 million tons.
The global rapeseed market is experiencing significant fluctuations driven by changes in export volumes and weather conditions. As the market adapts to these dynamics, stakeholders will need to stay informed and agile to navigate the evolving landscape effectively.