In the first seven months of 2024, Brazil’s corn export industry experienced notable shifts. Despite being a key player in the global market, the country saw a 25% decline in exports, with shipments reaching 11.89 million tons, compared to 15.86 million tons during the same period in 2023. This downturn has raised questions about the factors influencing this change and what the future holds for Brazilian corn on the global stage.
A Rocky Start, But a Promising Mid-Year Surge
- July Export Growth: Corn shipments surged significantly in July, with 3.55 million tons exported—a 317.7% increase compared to May 2024.
- Year-on-Year Comparison: Despite this growth, the July figures were still 16% lower than in July 2023, when exports reached 4.23 million tons.
Revenue: A Mixed Bag
- Price Increase: In July 2024, the price of exported corn reached US$198 per ton, showing a modest increase of 0.54% from June.
- Revenue Decline: Overall revenue for the first seven months stood at US$2.58 billion, marking a sharp 41.1% decline from the same period last year.
Mato Grosso: The Unchallenged Leader
- State Leadership: Mato Grosso accounted for 70.6% of all corn exports between January and July 2024, equivalent to 8.398 million tons.
- Regional Dominance: The Central-West region, driven by Mato Grosso’s output, was responsible for 81% of Brazil’s total corn exports during this period.
Global Buyers: The Battle for Supremacy
- Top Buyers:
- China and Egypt each accounted for 13.6% of Brazilian corn exports, with Egypt nearly matching China’s 1.611 million tons.
- Algeria and Vietnam are also significant, with these four countries making up 44.7% of Brazil’s corn export market, or 5.315 million tons.
Ports: The Lifeline of Corn Exports
- Leading Port: The port of Santos in São Paulo handled 26.45% of all shipments in 2024.
- Other Key Ports: Santarém (PA), Barcarena (PA), São Francisco do Sul (SC), and Itacoatiara (AM) collectively managed 58% of Brazil’s corn exports in the first seven months of the year.
Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities
As 2024 progresses, all eyes are on Brazil’s corn export market. With mid-year numbers showing some recovery, there is cautious optimism that the latter half of the year could bring better results. However, challenges remain, particularly in maintaining competitiveness in key markets and managing the impact of global economic fluctuations.