Strong Demand Lifts U.S. Corn Market, While European Prices Struggle with Rising U.S. Imports
The U.S. corn market benefits from high export demand, especially from Mexico, while European prices face downward pressure from increased U.S. imports. On Friday, the CBOT December corn contract rose by 3.75 cents, closing at 414.5 cents per bushel (around 151 euros per ton). Despite a weekly loss of 0.75 cents (0.2%), the U.S. contract closed higher for the day, highlighting the strong U.S. demand.
Meanwhile, European prices continued their decline. Euronext’s March contract in Paris dropped 1 euro to 206.50 euros per ton. This was the third consecutive weekly decline, totaling a loss of 5.50 euros (2.6%). Current conditions reveal a strong divergence between U.S. corn market demand and European prices.
U.S. Corn Market Demand Fuels Strong Export Growth
Demand for U.S. corn is rising, with Mexico as a key buyer. The USDA recently reported a sale to Mexico totaling 781,322 tons, most of which will ship in 2024/25. As of October 24, U.S. corn export commitments reached 25.82 million tons, up 41% year-over-year. This already fulfills 44% of the USDA’s annual forecast.
European Corn Prices Under Pressure from U.S. Imports
In Europe, lower yields and a delayed harvest have pushed prices down. U.S. imports help to meet the shortfall. By October 25, U.S. corn exports to the EU had reached 1.2 million tons, up from 88,000 tons last year. Total EU corn imports rose by 8% to 6.43 million tons.
Investor Adjustments and Strong Ethanol Demand
Investor sentiment is shifting, with reduced bearish positions on corn. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission reported a drop in net short positions by 53,796 contracts, down to 17,703 as of October 29. This is the lowest level since August 2023. Ethanol demand also supports the corn market. In September, grain crushing reached 440.16 million bushels, a six-year high for this month.
Corn Market Data
| Indicator | Details |
|---|---|
| CBOT December Corn Contract | 414.5 cents per bushel (~151 euros per ton) |
| Weekly Change in CBOT Contract | +3.75 cents (0.2% weekly loss) |
| Euronext March Corn Contract | 206.50 euros per ton |
| Weekly Change in Euronext Contract | -5.50 euros (-2.6% weekly loss) |
| Export Sale to Mexico (Oct 24) | 781,322 tons |
| USDA Export Commitments (Oct 24) | 25.82 million tons (up 41% year-over-year) |
| Percentage of USDA Export Forecast Sold | 44% (versus 40% average for this period) |
| Total EU Corn Imports (Oct 25) | 6.43 million tons (up 8% year-over-year) |
| U.S. Corn Exports to EU (Oct 25) | 1.2 million tons (compared to 88,000 tons in 2023) |
| September Grain Crushing | 440.16 million bushels (equivalent to 11.18 million tons) |
| Year-over-Year Increase in Grain Crushing | +2.74% |
| Month-on-Month Change in Grain Crushing | -8.2% |
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