Corn Market Pressured by Profit-Taking and Tariff Concerns
The CBoT corn market ended Friday’s session lower as profit-taking and concerns over potential tariff hikes weighed on sentiment. The active March contract lost 7.75 ct to 487.5 ct/bu (186 EUR/t), reducing its weekly gain to 12.5 ct (+2.6%). On the Euronext, the March contract remained unchanged at 216 EUR/t, with a weekly increase of 0.50 EUR (+0.2%).
Key Market Drivers & Developments
Profit-Taking & Tariff Concerns
- Market sentiment weakened on Friday due to profit-taking and renewed fears of tariff hikes.
- Over the weekend, President Trump reignited trade war concerns by announcing a 25% tariff on steel and aluminium imports.
- He further threatened “reciprocal tariffs,” which would mean that US import duties on foreign goods could be imposed if those countries levied tariffs on US products.
- This uncertainty weighed on grain markets, leading to a weaker Monday opening for corn, wheat, and soybeans.
South American Crop Conditions & WASDE Report
- Argentina: Rainfall has improved corn production prospects, easing some concerns over heat stress.
- Brazil: The slow soybean harvest continues to delay the planting of the second corn crop.
- AgRural is expected to release updated figures today, providing further insight into South America’s planting progress.
- USDA’s monthly WASDE report will be published tomorrow and could significantly impact market direction.
Speculative Positions & Fund Activity
- In the week ending February 4, funds increased their net-long position in CBoT corn futures and options from 350,721 to 364,217 contracts, marking their largest bullish stance since April 2022.
- This was the seventh consecutive week of net buying, a streak last seen in September 2022, but with significantly fewer contracts at that time.
- Despite being below the 2010 record of 429,189 net-long contracts, funds currently hold an all-time high in gross-long positions.
Export Demand & Ethanol Production Support Prices
- Despite Friday’s decline, the US corn market remains supported by strong demand.
- US corn exports continue to show resilience, with no signs of weakening.
- Ethanol production from corn in the US recently hit multiple weekly records.
- Trade tensions with Mexico, the largest US corn buyer, have been temporarily de-escalated, further supporting demand.
CBoT Corn – Closing Prices (February 10, 2025, 08:17 AM)
| Contract | Previous | Open | High | Low | Last | Change | EUR/t |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 (Active Contract) | 487.50 ct/bu | 485.75 ct/bu | 486.00 ct/bu | 482.25 ct/bu | 483.75 ct/bu | -3.75 ct (-0.77%) | 185 EUR/t |
| May 25 | 500.50 ct/bu | 498.25 ct/bu | 499.00 ct/bu | 495.25 ct/bu | 496.50 ct/bu | -4.00 ct (-0.80%) | 190 EUR/t |
| Jul 25 | 504.50 ct/bu | 502.00 ct/bu | 502.25 ct/bu | 499.25 ct/bu | 500.25 ct/bu | -4.25 ct (-0.84%) | 192 EUR/t |
| Sep 25 | 467.00 ct/bu | 465.00 ct/bu | 465.25 ct/bu | 462.75 ct/bu | 464.50 ct/bu | -2.50 ct (-0.54%) | 178 EUR/t |
| Dec 25 | 466.00 ct/bu | 464.00 ct/bu | 464.75 ct/bu | 462.00 ct/bu | 464.00 ct/bu | -2.00 ct (-0.43%) | 177 EUR/t |
(EUR conversion based on the exchange rate of 1 USD = 0.92 EUR)
Euronext Corn – Closing Prices (February 7, 2025, 6:33 PM)
| Contract | Previous | Open | High | Low | Last | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 25 (Active Contract) | 216.00 EUR/t | – | – | – | 216.00 EUR/t | 0.00 EUR (0.00%) |
| Jun 25 | 222.00 EUR/t | – | – | – | 222.00 EUR/t | 0.00 EUR (0.00%) |
| Aug 25 | 226.25 EUR/t | – | – | – | 226.25 EUR/t | 0.00 EUR (0.00%) |
| Nov 25 | 219.50 EUR/t | – | – | – | 219.50 EUR/t | 0.00 EUR (0.00%) |
Conclusion & Market Outlook
The corn market remains under pressure from profit-taking and uncertainty regarding US trade policies. South American weather developments, the upcoming WASDE report, and US export demand will be the key factors influencing price movements in the coming week.
Corn
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